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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor3:15 PM CT⚾ Drew Rasmussen vs Matthew LiberatoreMLB.TVCardinals.TVRays.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays 7 · St. Louis Cardinals 9

Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on St. Louis Cardinals: Tampa Bay Rays’s scoring margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 77%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day

Tampa Bay Rays

Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBurleson homered to right (432 feet), Scott II scored.6th Inning7–9
  2. ScoreHerrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored, Scott II to third.6th Inning7–7
  3. ScoreChurch singled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.6th Inning7–5
  4. ScoreDeLuca singled to center, Caminero scored and Simpson scored, Williamson to third.6th Inning6–1
  5. ScoreGorman singled to center, Burleson scored and Winn scored.6th Inning7–3
  6. ScoreSimpson singled to left, Fortes scored, Díaz to second, Williams to third.6th Inning2–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Tampa Bay Rays0000160007172
St. Louis Cardinals001008009140

Tampa Bay Rays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Yandy Diaz 1B·3-5513001014.600.667.600
Ryan Vilade RF·0-330000009.000.000.000
Chandler Simpson LF1-331110007.333.333.333
Jonathan Aranda 1B·2-4412211118.500.5001.250
Junior Caminero 3B·1-2211004136.500.833.500
Ben Williamson 2B·3-4413100013.750.750.750
Richie Palacios 2B0-220000016.000.000.000
Jonny DeLuca RF·2-4402200012.500.500.500
Jake Fraley RF1-1101000021.0001.0001.000
Nick Fortes C·3-4413100013.750.750.750
Hunter Feduccia C0-110000015.000.000.000
Cedric Mullins CF·0-5500000018.000.000.000
Carson Williams SS·1-5511000115.200.200.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Drew Rasmussen SP·5.041102173-491.8073
Ian Seymour RP0.055500021-14INF21
Garrett Cleavinger RP0.12220009-754.009
Griffin Jax RP0.211100114-1113.5014
Yoendrys Gomez RP2.020011028-190.0028

St. Louis Cardinals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·1-4411210118.250.2001.000
Ivan Herrera C·0-4400100018.000.000.000
Alec Burleson 1B·3-4423211019.750.8001.500
Masyn Winn SS·1-5511000123.200.200.400
Nolan Gorman 3B·1-4411200117.250.250.250
Ramon Urias 3B0-000000000.000.000.000
Jordan Walker RF·1-441100009.250.250.500
Nathan Church LF·3-4413200013.750.750.750
Pedro Pages C·1-4411000018.250.250.250
Victor Scott II CF·3-4413000010.750.750.750

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Matthew Liberatore SP·5.071122178-491.8078
Matt Svanson RP0.133300016-1181.0016
Justin Bruihl RP0.11221009-454.009
Chris Roycroft RP0.131100013-827.0013
JoJo Romero RP0.22000009-70.009
Riley O'Brien RP1.110002017-110.0017
Ryne Stanek RP1.000031026-120.0026

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningMullins fouled out to first.
  2. 5th InningCaminero singled to left.
  3. 7th InningCaminero struck out looking.
  4. 6th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  5. 5th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningBurleson homered to right (432 feet), Scott II scored.7–9
  2. 6th InningHerrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored, Scott II to third.7–7
  3. 6th InningChurch singled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.7–5
  4. 6th InningDeLuca singled to center, Caminero scored and Simpson scored, Williamson to third.6–1
  5. 6th InningGorman singled to center, Burleson scored and Winn scored.7–3
  6. 6th InningSimpson singled to left, Fortes scored, Díaz to second, Williams to third.2–1
  7. 6th InningFortes reached on infield single to shortstop, Williamson scored, DeLuca to second.7–1
  8. 6th InningWilliamson reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third.4–1
  9. 3rd InningWetherholt homered to center (425 feet).0–1
  10. 6th InningWetherholt hit sacrifice fly to right, Church scored, Pagés to third.7–6
  11. 6th InningAranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Williams scored.3–1
  12. 5th InningAranda homered to right center (405 feet).1–1

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