KC @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET62°F · 10 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Seth Lugo vs Grant HolmesMLB.TVRoyals.TVBravesVision
Result readKansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 4 · Atlanta Braves 1
Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Kansas City Royals is the model’s call — Atlanta Braves on the margin numbers, Kansas City Royals on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 3.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreJensen hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- ScoreBaldwin homered to right (396 feet).4–1
- ScorePasquantino singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.3–0
- ScoreJensen homered to right center (371 feet).2–0
- ScoreWitt Jr. singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .200 | .385 | .200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .364 | .417 | .364 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .182 | .250 | .182 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .167 | .167 | .417 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | .125 | .200 | .500 |
| Lane Thomas CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .286 | .375 | .429 |
| Isaac Collins LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .143 | .000 |
| Nick Loftin 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .286 | .286 | .286 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo SP· | 6.1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 77-55 | 0.00 | 77 |
| Matt Strahm RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-4 | 0.00 | 4 |
| John Schreiber RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23-14 | 9.00 | 23 |
| Lucas Erceg RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 0.00 | 12 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .083 | .154 | .083 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .273 | .385 | .818 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .250 | .250 | .333 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .364 | .417 | .364 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .500 | .500 | .625 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .364 | .417 | .636 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .364 | .364 | .636 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .333 | .333 | .833 |
| Kyle Farmer 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jorge Mateo SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 76-45 | 5.40 | 76 |
| Didier Fuentes SP | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 56-36 | 2.25 | 56 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningRiley struck out swinging.
- 1st InningOlson grounded out to pitcher.
- 9th InningPitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningJensen hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 8th InningBaldwin homered to right (396 feet).4–1
- 5th InningPasquantino singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.3–0
- 4th InningJensen homered to right center (371 feet).2–0
- 3rd InningWitt Jr. singled to right, Loftin scored, Garcia to third.1–0