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InTheRafters.com

PIT @ NYM

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET45°F · 15 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Carmen Mlodzinski vs Nolan McLeanMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 4 · New York Mets 3

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pittsburgh Pirates gets the model’s nod thanks to Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets

Injury Report

New York Mets

Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
New York Mets
CB Carson Benge LF · #3 BB Brett Baty RF · #7 BB Bo Bichette 3B · #19 RM Ronny Mauricio SS · #0 MS Marcus Semien 2B · #10 MV Mark Vientos 1B · #27 FP Freddy Peralta P · #51 FA F. Alvarez C · #4

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreSoto singled to right, Lindor scored.5th Inning2–2
  2. ScoreLowe homered to right center (390 feet).3rd Inning2–1
  3. ScoreO'Hearn singled to center, Reynolds scored.10th Inning3–2
  4. ScoreDavis singled to center, Cook scored, Gonzales to third.10th Inning4–2
  5. ScoreO'Hearn singled to left, Cruz scored, Lowe to second.1st Inning1–0
  6. ScoreSemien hit sacrifice fly to center, Robert Jr. scored.2nd Inning1–1

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates1010000002471
New York Mets0100100001391

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-4411001223.200.273.200
Brandon Lowe 2B·2-3312112025.417.5001.250
Bryan Reynolds LF·0-5510000318.214.267.214
Ryan O'Hearn RF·3-5503200221.429.467.643
Jared Triolo SS·0-3300001020.154.267.231
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-330000015.000.000.000
Nick Yorke 3B0-000000209.200.429.200
Billy Cook RF0-001000000.000.000.000
Nick Gonzales 3B·0-4400001119.286.333.357
Henry Davis C·1-4401101017.250.400.375
Jake Mangum LF·0-4400000318.222.222.333

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Carmen Mlodzinski SP·4.162208085-554.1585
Yohan Ramirez RP1.200012022-130.0022
Mason Montgomery RP1.020003020-167.7120
Isaac Mattson RP1.000002013-910.8013
Dennis Santana RP1.000001013-90.0013
Jose Urquidy RP1.011010011-60.0011

New York Mets

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Francisco Lindor SS·2-4412001223.182.400.364
Juan Soto LF·2-5502200325.357.400.429
Bo Bichette 3B·0-5500000320.071.067.071
Jorge Polanco 1B·0-5500000120.100.400.100
Luis Robert Jr. CF·2-3312001115.455.571.727
Brett Baty RF·2-4402000215.308.308.462
Marcus Semien 2B·0-3300100113.182.231.273
Carson Benge LF·0-4400000116.100.250.400
Luis Torrens C·1-3301000111.500.500.500
Jared Young 1B0-110000016.000.000.000
Francisco Alvarez C0-001000000.333.500.833

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Nolan McLean SP·5.042228184-523.6084
Huascar Brazoban RP1.200000014-110.0014
Sean Manaea RP1.110022029-150.0029
Luke Weaver RP1.000021022-120.0022
Richard Lovelady RP1.022121026-134.5026

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningSoto struck out swinging.
  2. 10th InningLindor walked.
  3. 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
  4. 10th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
  5. 8th InningPolanco lined out to left.
  6. 7th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningSoto singled to right, Lindor scored.2–2
  2. 3rd InningLowe homered to right center (390 feet).2–1
  3. 10th InningO'Hearn singled to center, Reynolds scored.3–2
  4. 10th InningDavis singled to center, Cook scored, Gonzales to third.4–2
  5. 1st InningO'Hearn singled to left, Cruz scored, Lowe to second.1–0
  6. 2nd InningSemien hit sacrifice fly to center, Robert Jr. scored.1–1
  7. 10th InningSoto doubled to center, Alvarez scored, Lindor thrown out at home.4–3

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