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In The Rafters

TB @ STL

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:15 PM CT67°F · 8 mph wind · overcast⚾ Steven Matz vs Dustin MayMLB.TVCardinals.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays 11 · St. Louis Cardinals 7

Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Tampa Bay Rays gets the model’s nod thanks to Tampa Bay Rays’s margin advantage, with Tampa Bay Rays’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 72%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 4.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Rays

St. Louis Cardinals

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day

Tampa Bay Rays

Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Tampa Bay Rays
CS C. Simpson LF · #14 CM Cedric Mullins CF · #31 JD Jonny DeLuca RF · #21 JC J. Caminero 3B · #13 TW Taylor Walls SS · #6 BW Ben Williamson 2B · #15 JA J. Aranda 1B · #8 DR Drew Rasmussen P · #57 NF Nick Fortes C · #40
St. Louis Cardinals
NC Nathan Church LF · #27 VI V. Scott II CF · #11 JW Jordan Walker RF · #18 NG Nolan Gorman 3B · #16 MW Masyn Winn SS · #0 JW JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26 AB Alec Burleson 1B · #41 ML M. Liberatore P · #32 IH Ivan Herrera C · #48

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreWalker homered to center (415 feet), Winn scored and Saggese scored.4th Inning6–4
  2. ScoreGorman homered to right center (443 feet).8th Inning9–5
  3. ScorePagés homered to left center (418 feet), Walker scored.8th Inning9–7
  4. ScoreAranda singled to center, Williams scored, Díaz to third.8th Inning8–4
  5. ScoreDíaz singled to right, Williamson scored, Williams to third.8th Inning7–4
  6. ScoreDeLuca scored on May wild pitch.2nd Inning2–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Tampa Bay Rays03030003211171
St. Louis Cardinals0013000307110

Tampa Bay Rays

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Yandy Diaz 1B·5-6625400019.563.588.625
Jonathan Aranda 1B·3-6613200118.462.529.769
Cedric Mullins CF·1-5501200222.071.067.143
Junior Caminero 3B·0-5500000218.200.467.200
Chandler Simpson LF·2-4412001020.455.500.455
Jonny DeLuca RF·2-5522100013.444.444.556
Richie Palacios 2B·0-220000007.000.000.000
Ben Williamson 2B2-332200007.556.556.556
Carson Williams SS·1-3321101117.250.308.333
Hunter Feduccia C·1-111100108.250.400.250
Nick Fortes C0-2200001013.500.556.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Steven Matz SP·5.064412181-507.2081
Kevin Kelly RP1.010001010-80.0010
Garrett Cleavinger RP1.010021023-1313.5023
Mason Englert RP1.033301224-1627.0024
Bryan Baker RP1.000000010-80.0010

St. Louis Cardinals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt 2B·1-4401001018.308.333.538
Ivan Herrera C·0-5500000018.077.071.154
Alec Burleson 1B·0-4400001018.364.429.636
Masyn Winn SS·2-5512000013.214.214.357
Thomas Saggese LF·0-3310001115.000.250.000
Ramon Urias 3B·0-220000018.167.167.333
Nolan Gorman 3B1-221111007.300.300.600
Jordan Walker RF·3-4433310118.400.500.900
Pedro Pages C·2-4412210015.375.375.750
Victor Scott II CF·2-4402000218.500.500.500

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Dustin May SP·4.0106613061-4013.5061
Justin Bruihl RP2.010012029-177.7129
George Soriano RP1.000000012-80.0012
Matt Pushard RP1.033311031-1527.0031
Chris Roycroft RP1.032210029-1520.2529

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningFortes flied out to shortstop.
  2. 7th InningWetherholt walked, Pagés to second.
  3. 5th InningSimpson walked.
  4. 4th InningWalker homered to center (415 feet), Winn scored and Saggese scored.6–4
  5. 8th InningScott II struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningWalker homered to center (415 feet), Winn scored and Saggese scored.6–4
  2. 8th InningGorman homered to right center (443 feet).9–5
  3. 8th InningPagés homered to left center (418 feet), Walker scored.9–7
  4. 8th InningAranda singled to center, Williams scored, Díaz to third.8–4
  5. 8th InningDíaz singled to right, Williamson scored, Williams to third.7–4
  6. 2nd InningDeLuca scored on May wild pitch.2–0
  7. 9th InningDíaz reached on infield single to pitcher, Williamson scored, Fortes to second, Williams to third.11–7
  8. 4th InningMullins doubled to right, Aranda scored.6–1
  9. 2nd InningDeLuca scored on May wild pitch.2–0
  10. 8th InningMullins hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.9–4
  11. 4th InningDíaz doubled to left, Feduccia scored.4–1
  12. 9th InningWilliams hit sacrifice bunt, DeLuca scored, Williamson to second.10–7
  13. 4th InningAranda doubled to right, Díaz scored.5–1
  14. 3rd InningScott II reached on infield single to second, Walker scored on throwing error by second baseman Palacios.3–1
  15. 2nd InningDíaz singled to right, Williams scored, Feduccia to second.3–0
  16. 2nd InningDeLuca doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–0

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