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InTheRafters.com

PIT @ CIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET72°F · 12 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ Bubba Chandler vs Brandon WilliamsonMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 8 · Cincinnati Reds 3

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Pittsburgh Pirates because Pittsburgh Pirates owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 95%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreYorke hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored.2nd Inning1–0
  2. ScoreCruz homered to right center (444 feet).4th Inning6–1
  3. ScoreO'Hearn homered to center (401 feet), Bart scored and Cruz scored.2nd Inning4–0
  4. ScoreDe La Cruz homered to right (334 feet).8th Inning6–2
  5. ScoreReynolds homered to left center (417 feet).2nd Inning5–0
  6. ScoreStewart homered to right center (376 feet).8th Inning6–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates050100002881
Cincinnati Reds001000020360

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jake Mangum LF·1-4401001015.231.286.308
Ryan O'Hearn RF·1-3311311019.421.522.737
Bryan Reynolds LF·1-4411110120.182.217.318
Marcell Ozuna DH·0-4400000124.063.167.063
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-4400000114.333.455.889
Nick Gonzales 3B·2-4422000010.318.348.364
Joey Bart C·0-2210001110.200.333.200
Spencer Horwitz 1B0-110000013.083.083.083
Henry Davis C0-000000000.182.308.273
Oneil Cruz CF·3-4433320115.278.316.611
Nick Yorke 3B·0-3300100119.125.273.125

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Bubba Chandler SP·4.101066081-430.0081
Yohan Ramirez RP0.200002010-60.0010
Hunter Barco RP2.042213247-2412.0047
Dennis Santana RP1.010000017-120.0017
Gregory Soto RP1.010011017-100.0017

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·0-3300002119.100.217.100
Matt McLain 2B·0-3300001323.235.435.294
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-5511110122.200.304.500
Sal Stewart 1B·1-4411111221.563.6821.125
Eugenio Suarez 3B·1-5501000219.190.227.333
Will Benson RF·0-220000016.222.300.444
Dane Myers CF1-220100019.429.429.429
Noelvi Marte RF·0-2210002125.000.200.000
Jose Trevino C·1-220100109.143.250.143
Nathaniel Lowe 1B0-110000008.000.000.000
Tyler Stephenson C0-000000000.000.100.000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·1-3301001011.083.214.083

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Brandon Williamson SP·4.266623394-5311.5794
Brock Burke RP2.100012020-110.0020
Sam Moll RP1.000001015-90.0015
Pierce Johnson RP1.022201120-1410.1320

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningLowe lined into double play, second to first, Myers doubled off first.
  2. 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play

Scoring Plays

  1. 2nd InningYorke hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored.1–0
  2. 4th InningCruz homered to right center (444 feet).6–1
  3. 2nd InningO'Hearn homered to center (401 feet), Bart scored and Cruz scored.4–0
  4. 8th InningDe La Cruz homered to right (334 feet).6–2
  5. 2nd InningReynolds homered to left center (417 feet).5–0
  6. 8th InningStewart homered to right center (376 feet).6–3
  7. 3rd InningMarte scored on error, Hayes safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Cruz, Trevino safe at second on error.5–1
  8. 9th InningCruz homered to right center (403 feet), Gonzales scored.8–3

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