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In The Rafters

DET @ ARI

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameIndoor12:40 PM PT⚾ Tarik Skubal vs Zac GallenESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVDBACKS.TVTigers.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks

Detroit Tigers 0 · Arizona Diamondbacks 1

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Arizona Diamondbacks because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Detroit Tigers has the recent-form edge. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 71%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreCarroll homered to center (410 feet).1st Inning0–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers000000000071
Arizona Diamondbacks10000000—160

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Colt Keith 3B·1-4401000011.364.417.545
Kevin McGonigle SS·2-4402000015.364.440.545
Gleyber Torres 2B·1-4401000016.200.407.200
Riley Greene LF·1-4401000217.200.259.280
Jahmai Jones RF0-000000000.000.000.000
Dillon Dingler C·1-4401000116.313.389.563
Kerry Carpenter RF·0-3300000115.091.200.091
Matt Vierling CF·1-3301000012.125.125.125
Parker Meadows CF·0-3300000013.200.250.267
Javier Baez SS·0-3300000118.143.200.143

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Tarik Skubal SP·7.061103187-600.6987
Kyle Finnegan RP1.000020020-100.0020

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte 2B·0-3300001118.182.308.318
Corbin Carroll RF·2-3312111012.333.400.762
Geraldo Perdomo SS·0-4400000012.217.280.391
Gabriel Moreno C·0-3300000012.263.300.368
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·1-330100009.429.429.857
Nolan Arenado 3B·1-3301000111.158.158.158
Jose Fernandez 1B·0-3300000010.429.4291.286
Tim Tawa LF·1-3301000011.333.333.500
Jordan Lawlar LF·1-3301000112.313.353.375

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Zac Gallen SP·6.040002088-583.6088
Taylor Clarke RP1.010002018-1115.4318
Juan Morillo RP1.000001011-86.0011
Jonathan Loaisiga RP1.020000016-90.0016

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 5th InningVierling reached on infield single to shortstop.
  2. 7th InningGreene struck out swinging.
  3. 5th InningBáez grounded out to third.
  4. 5th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
  5. 7th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
  6. 5th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
  7. 5th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 1st InningCarroll homered to center (410 feet).0–1

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