ATL @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Atlanta Braves 1 · Arizona Diamondbacks 2
Arizona Diamondbacks gets the model’s nod thanks to Atlanta Braves’s margin advantage, with Atlanta Braves’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 97%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreSmith singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.1–0
- 💣 Home RunFernandez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Moreno scored on throwing error by pitcher Elder and Arenado scored on error, Fernandez to second.1–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .161 | .308 | .194 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .257 | .350 | .543 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .314 | .368 | .629 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .188 | .278 | .219 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .240 | .345 | .400 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .314 | .368 | .486 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .229 | .250 | .343 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .350 | .409 | .650 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .357 | .400 | .500 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder SP· | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 89-61 | 0.00 | 89 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-6 | 0.00 | 7 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .152 | .243 | .242 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .250 | .371 | .571 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .194 | .265 | .355 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .241 | .290 | .310 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .185 | .185 | .185 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .333 | .333 | .833 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .138 | .167 | .241 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .222 | .222 | .444 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 91-57 | 0.90 | 91 |
| Taylor Clarke RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 10.80 | 12 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-7 | 0.00 | 10 |
| Juan Morillo RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 3.60 | 14 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21-14 | 4.50 | 21 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningHarris II flied out to center.
- 9th InningAlbies struck out swinging.
- 3rd InningAcuña Jr. walked.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningSmith singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.1–0
- 2nd InningFernandez reached on bunt single to pitcher, Moreno scored on throwing error by pitcher Elder and Arenado scored on error, Fernandez to second.1–2