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InTheRafters.com

BAL @ PIT

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Afternoon GameOutdoor4:05 PM ET74°F · 9 mph wind · overcast⚾ Shane Baz vs Carmen MlodzinskiMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Baltimore Orioles 2 · Pittsburgh Pirates 3

Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Pittsburgh Pirates

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29
Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32

Box Score

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoubleYorke doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.9th Inning2–3
  2. ScoreYorke scored on error, Mangum safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Nunez, Gonzales to second.8th Inning2–2
  3. ScoreHorwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored.4th Inning2–1
  4. ScoreTaveras singled to right, Rutschman scored, Mayo to second, Beavers to third.4th Inning2–0
  5. ScoreBeavers singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.4th Inning1–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Baltimore Orioles000200000261
Pittsburgh Pirates000100011380

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Taylor Ward LF·0-4400001124.290.395.387
Gunnar Henderson SS·1-3311002124.242.342.485
Pete Alonso 1B·0-4400000213.226.314.323
Adley Rutschman C·2-4412000016.333.440.524
Dylan Beavers RF·1-4401100111.318.318.500
Coby Mayo 3B·1-3301001122.150.292.200
Leody Taveras CF·1-2201102016.500.700.667
Colton Cowser RF·0-220000028.235.333.294
Tyler O'Neill RF0-220000005.125.263.313
Blaze Alexander 3B·0-3300001020.333.368.333

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Shane Baz SP·5.241135098-634.0998
Rico Garcia RP0.100010010-50.0010
Grant Wolfram RP1.010002021-125.4021
Anthony Nunez RP1.011010027-131.8027
Ryan Helsley RP0.121110013-93.8613

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·1-4401001122.290.333.581
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-4400001120.280.419.720
Bryan Reynolds LF·3-4423001125.265.324.471
Ryan O'Hearn RF·1-4401001118.360.469.600
Marcell Ozuna DH·1-4401000214.074.194.074
Nick Yorke 3B1-111110008.273.438.364
Konnor Griffin SS·0-3300000017.167.375.333
Spencer Horwitz 1B·1-3301100012.143.208.190
Nick Gonzales 3B·0-2200002022.310.375.379
Joey Bart C·0-330000018.125.222.125
Jake Mangum LF0-110000003.158.200.211
Henry Davis C0-000000000.176.300.294

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Carmen Mlodzinski SP·4.252235084-494.0084
Hunter Barco RP2.100031045-226.7545
Isaac Mattson RP1.010011017-93.6017
Dennis Santana RP1.000001013-100.0013

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningGriffin grounded out to third, Yorke to second.
  2. 6th InningGonzales walked.
  3. 9th InningYorke doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.2–3
  4. 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
  5. 8th InningTaveras walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningYorke doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.2–3
  2. 8th InningYorke scored on error, Mangum safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Nunez, Gonzales to second.2–2
  3. 4th InningHorwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored.2–1
  4. 4th InningTaveras singled to right, Rutschman scored, Mayo to second, Beavers to third.2–0
  5. 4th InningBeavers singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.1–0

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