BAL @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET47°F · 15 mph wind · overcast⚾ Chris Bassitt vs Braxton AshcraftMLB.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles 2 · Pittsburgh Pirates 8
Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pittsburgh Pirates gets the model’s nod thanks to Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin advantage, with Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 83%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCruz homered to center (415 feet), Mangum scored.1–8
- 🏃 DoubleO'Hearn doubled to center, Lowe scored and Cruz scored.0–6
- ScoreReynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored.0–4
- ScoreJackson singled to right, O'Neill scored, Beavers to second.2–8
- ScoreCruz reached on infield single to catcher, Horwitz scored, Mangum to second, Davis to third.0–3
- ScoreO'Hearn homered to center (402 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 8 | 10 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward LF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .343 | .429 | .457 |
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .216 | .310 | .432 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .229 | .308 | .343 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | .148 | .207 | .259 |
| Tyler O'Neill RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .150 | .261 | .300 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .308 | .308 | .462 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .444 | .615 | .556 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .238 | .227 | .238 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .286 | .318 | .286 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt SP· | 2.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 62-32 | 14.21 | 62 |
| Cade Povich SP | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 87-53 | 3.18 | 87 |
| Yennier Cano RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-4 | 4.50 | 7 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .314 | .368 | .657 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .267 | .389 | .633 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | .250 | .333 | .444 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .367 | .459 | .700 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .286 | .450 | .357 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .111 | .333 | .222 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | .174 | .286 | .217 |
| Henry Davis C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .190 | .292 | .286 |
| Jake Mangum LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .217 | .250 | .261 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 87-54 | 2.25 | 87 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25-18 | 9.64 | 25 |
| Jose Urquidy RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 31-23 | 0.00 | 31 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningAlexander struck out swinging.
- 7th InningPitch 10 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 8th InningO'Hearn struck out swinging.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningGriffin walked.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningCruz homered to center (415 feet), Mangum scored.1–8
- 2nd InningO'Hearn doubled to center, Lowe scored and Cruz scored.0–6
- 2nd InningReynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored.0–4
- 7th InningJackson singled to right, O'Neill scored, Beavers to second.2–8
- 2nd InningCruz reached on infield single to catcher, Horwitz scored, Mangum to second, Davis to third.0–3
- 1st InningO'Hearn homered to center (402 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
- 4th InningAlonso doubled to center, Ward scored.1–6