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In The Rafters

CIN @ MIA

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Andrew Abbott vs Sandy AlcantaraMLB.TVReds.TVMarlins.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds 6 · Miami Marlins 3

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Cincinnati Reds because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Miami Marlins has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 77%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreStewart hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.9th Inning1–2
  2. 🏃 DoubleMcLain doubled to left, Stephenson scored and Myers scored, Friedl to third.10th Inning5–2
  3. ScoreLopez grounded out to second, Ramírez scored, Marsee to third.4th Inning0–1
  4. ScoreDe La Cruz grounded out to third, Friedl scored, McLain to third.10th Inning6–2
  5. ScoreLowe singled to center, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.10th Inning3–2
  6. ScoreDe La Cruz scored on Bender wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bender.9th Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Cincinnati Reds0000000024650
Miami Marlins0002000001371

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·0-4410001014.132.283.132
Matt McLain 2B·2-5512200024.238.360.310
Elly De La Cruz SS·0-3310102016.250.327.477
Sal Stewart 1B·1-3301101116.351.468.595
Eugenio Suarez 3B·0-3300001113.195.250.341
Will Benson RF0-110000005.227.261.364
Spencer Steer LF·0-4410000220.167.205.306
Tyler Stephenson C·0-3310001320.148.207.370
Noelvi Marte RF·1-4401000111.125.222.125
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·0-220000003.107.167.107
Nathaniel Lowe 1B1-220110009.300.300.400
Dane Myers CF0-001000000.267.313.267

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Andrew Abbott SP·5.162222091-513.1891
Pierce Johnson RP0.20000107-66.757
Jose Franco RP2.000022031-210.0031
Emilio Pagan RP1.000022024-116.1424
Graham Ashcraft RP1.011000010-62.5710

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Austin Slater LF·0-3300000110.111.150.111
Griffin Conine LF0-1100001110.250.368.500
Agustin Ramirez C·1-5511000219.229.372.343
Jakob Marsee CF·2-4422001020.143.245.214
Otto Lopez SS·1-5501100122.333.391.476
Heriberto Hernandez LF·1-3301101015.133.257.200
Graham Pauley 3B0-110010001.235.235.412
Connor Norby 1B·1-3301002024.167.342.233
Xavier Edwards 2B·0-440000008.390.419.537
Leo Jimenez 2B·0-220000005.222.222.222
Liam Hicks C0-220000028.296.375.667
Javier Sanoja 3B·1-3301001021.370.393.481

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Sandy Alcantara SP·8.132226095-670.7495
Anthony Bender RP0.200011021-129.0021
Calvin Faucher RP0.124321028-166.2328
John King RP0.20001007-50.007

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningSteer struck out looking.
  2. 9th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking
  3. 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 10th InningStephenson walked.
  5. 9th InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
  6. 9th InningStewart hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.1–2

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningStewart hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.1–2
  2. 10th InningMcLain doubled to left, Stephenson scored and Myers scored, Friedl to third.5–2
  3. 4th InningLopez grounded out to second, Ramírez scored, Marsee to third.0–1
  4. 10th InningDe La Cruz grounded out to third, Friedl scored, McLain to third.6–2
  5. 10th InningLowe singled to center, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.3–2
  6. 9th InningDe La Cruz scored on Bender wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bender.2–2
  7. 4th InningHernández grounded out to third, Marsee scored.0–2
  8. 9th InningDe La Cruz scored on Bender wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bender.2–2
  9. 10th InningPauley grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsee scored, Lopez out at second.6–3

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