ARI @ NYM
Citi Field · Queens, New York
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameOutdoor4:10 PM ET39°F · 7 mph wind · clear⚾ Ryne Nelson vs David PetersonMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 7 · New York Mets 2
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
New York Mets15-25-2-0.7 net/g (SOS-adj -0.9) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeCiti FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Arizona Diamondbacks on the back of Arizona Diamondbacks’s margin work and New York Mets’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 62%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 5.
Pre-game pick: New York Mets at 62%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
New York Mets
- Freddy Peralta SP · #51
- Clay Holmes SP · #35
- Tobias Myers RP · #32
- Bo Bichette 3B · #19
Injury Report
New York Mets
Nate LavenderDay-To-DayNick BurdiDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleBarrosa doubled to center, Vargas scored and Fernandez scored, Tawa to third.7–1
- ScorePerdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.5–0
- ScoreVientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored, Baty to third.7–2
- ScoreBaty singled to center, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to second.5–1
- 🏃 DoubleCarroll doubled to center, Fernandez scored and Barrosa scored, Marte to third.4–0
- ScoreMarte singled to right, Vargas scored, Barrosa to second, Fernandez to third.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .208 | .269 | .313 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .333 | .408 | .690 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22 | .179 | .277 | .308 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | .243 | .310 | .324 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | .200 | .220 | .225 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .500 | .524 | .800 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .300 | .300 | .600 |
| Tim Tawa LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .125 | .222 | .188 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .211 | .250 | .421 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson SP· | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 86-64 | 4.20 | 86 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-2 | 0.00 | 3 |
| Andrew Hoffmann RP | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33-20 | 0.00 | 33 |
| Taylor Clarke RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16-9 | 6.35 | 16 |
New York Mets
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor SS· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .149 | .310 | .255 |
| Bo Bichette 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .222 | .246 | .259 |
| Jorge Polanco 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .200 | .289 | .275 |
| Luis Robert Jr. CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .306 | .457 | .389 |
| Brett Baty RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .275 | .268 | .400 |
| Mark Vientos 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .370 | .400 | .556 |
| Marcus Semien 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .209 | .286 | .326 |
| Carson Benge LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .108 | .214 | .189 |
| Francisco Alvarez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .300 | .400 | .633 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 85-53 | 6.14 | 85 |
| Sean Manaea RP | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 70-43 | 3.00 | 70 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningMoreno struck out swinging.
- 5th InningArenado struck out swinging.
- 9th InningLindor grounded out to shortstop.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 5th InningBenge flied out to left.
- 5th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningBarrosa doubled to center, Vargas scored and Fernandez scored, Tawa to third.7–1
- 2nd InningPerdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.5–0
- 8th InningVientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored, Baty to third.7–2
- 6th InningBaty singled to center, Bichette scored, Robert Jr. to second.5–1
- 2nd InningCarroll doubled to center, Fernandez scored and Barrosa scored, Marte to third.4–0
- 2nd InningMarte singled to right, Vargas scored, Barrosa to second, Fernandez to third.2–0
- 1st InningMoreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.1–0