CIN @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor12:10 PM ET⚾ Rhett Lowder vs Max MeyerMLB.TVReds.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds 1 · Miami Marlins 8
Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Miami Marlins: Miami Marlins’s scoring margin profile and Miami Marlins’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 73%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 7.
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 73%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRamírez singled to center, Pauley scored and Marsee scored.1–8
- ScoreStewart homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- ScoreRamírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edwards scored on fielding error by third baseman Suárez.0–1
- ScoreSanoja singled to right, Caissie scored.0–4
- ScoreCaissie singled to center, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second, Hicks to third.1–6
- 🏃 DoubleCaissie doubled to left, Hicks scored and Lopez scored.0–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 8 | 12 | 2 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .167 | .286 | .167 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .235 | .350 | .294 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | .231 | .310 | .423 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .364 | .473 | .727 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .208 | .269 | .354 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .214 | .267 | .286 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .200 | .233 | .350 |
| Dane Myers CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .263 | .300 | .263 |
| P.J. Higgins C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Will Benson RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .192 | .250 | .308 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder SP· | 5.1 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 95-56 | 3.31 | 95 |
| Brock Burke RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-6 | 0.00 | 8 |
| Jose Franco RP | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 43-25 | 3.18 | 43 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .160 | .271 | .220 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 23 | .396 | .453 | .563 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .250 | .365 | .364 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .314 | .390 | .600 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .333 | .400 | .489 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .324 | .385 | .618 |
| Griffin Conine LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .273 | .360 | .591 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .125 | .243 | .188 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .406 | .424 | .500 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .200 | .200 | .360 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 87-59 | 3.68 | 87 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-8 | 7.20 | 12 |
| Tyler Phillips RP | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 37-27 | 0.00 | 37 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningEdwards walked.
- 8th InningEdwards struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningRamírez singled to center, Pauley scored and Marsee scored.1–8
- 5th InningStewart homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- 1st InningRamírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edwards scored on fielding error by third baseman Suárez.0–1
- 4th InningSanoja singled to right, Caissie scored.0–4
- 7th InningCaissie singled to center, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second, Hicks to third.1–6
- 4th InningCaissie doubled to left, Hicks scored and Lopez scored.0–3
- 6th InningSanoja singled to center, Caissie scored.1–5