ARI @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Michael Soroka vs Jesus LuzardoESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 5 · Philadelphia Phillies 4
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona Diamondbacks’s scoring margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies’s recent stretch. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 69%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 69%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleMcCann doubled to right, Vargas scored and Marte scored.5–4
- ScoreVargas singled to left, Thomas scored, Marte to second.3–4
- ScoreMarsh homered to left center (372 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.0–4
- 🏃 DoubleHarper doubled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–1
- ScoreMarte singled to left, Fernandez scored and Tawa scored, Thomas to second.2–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | .193 | .258 | .281 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .429 | .467 | .679 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | .182 | .309 | .295 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .275 | .333 | .400 |
| James McCann C | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .125 | .176 | .250 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .182 | .200 | .205 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .321 | .321 | .571 |
| Tim Tawa LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .136 | .231 | .182 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .128 | .171 | .205 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .222 | .250 | .444 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka SP· | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 93-61 | 2.87 | 93 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15-9 | 2.45 | 15 |
| Juan Morillo RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 26-16 | 2.45 | 26 |
| Paul Sewald RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-8 | 3.38 | 9 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .255 | .305 | .327 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .182 | .379 | .432 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .245 | .339 | .449 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .273 | .298 | .477 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .179 | .238 | .205 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .229 | .283 | .396 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | .170 | .250 | .255 |
| J.T. Realmuto C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .241 | .389 | .414 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .316 | .381 | .421 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo SP· | 4.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 86-51 | 6.23 | 86 |
| Jonathan Bowlan RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19-12 | 4.26 | 19 |
| Brad Keller RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7-5 | 4.50 | 7 |
| Orion Kerkering RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13-9 | 9.00 | 13 |
| Tanner Banks RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-11 | 1.59 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningTawa popped out to third.
- 1st InningPerdomo struck out swinging.
- 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningSchwarber flied out to center.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningMcCann doubled to right, Vargas scored and Marte scored.5–4
- 5th InningVargas singled to left, Thomas scored, Marte to second.3–4
- 1st InningMarsh homered to left center (372 feet), Schwarber scored and Harper scored.0–4
- 1st InningHarper doubled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–1
- 5th InningMarte singled to left, Fernandez scored and Tawa scored, Thomas to second.2–4