ARI @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:05 PM ET⚾ Brandon Pfaadt vs Taijuan WalkerMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readPhiladelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks 3 · Philadelphia Phillies 4
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Philadelphia Phillies is the model’s call — Arizona Diamondbacks on the margin numbers, Philadelphia Phillies on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 65%. Actual: Philadelphia Phillies by 1.
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 65%. Actual: Philadelphia Phillies by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to third.3–4
- ScoreMarte homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
- ScoreHarper homered to center (419 feet).2–4
- ScoreSchwarber homered to right (381 feet), Bohm scored and Crawford scored.2–3
- ScoreDel Castillo singled to center, Carroll scored.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 5 | 1 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .197 | .258 | .328 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | .311 | .396 | .644 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .170 | .305 | .277 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .313 | .313 | .375 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .313 | .313 | .531 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .167 | .184 | .188 |
| Tim Tawa LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .120 | .233 | .160 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .143 | .200 | .238 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .226 | .250 | .419 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt RP· | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 101-65 | 5.94 | 101 |
| Kevin Ginkel RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 6.75 | 17 |
| Ryan Thompson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20-13 | 0.00 | 20 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .237 | .286 | .305 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .188 | .371 | .479 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .350 | .500 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .250 | .275 | .438 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .190 | .261 | .214 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .220 | .298 | .380 |
| J.T. Realmuto C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | .212 | .350 | .364 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .157 | .232 | .235 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .350 | .422 | .475 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 85-52 | 7.36 | 85 |
| Tim Mayza RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-8 | 0.00 | 9 |
| Orion Kerkering RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-9 | 6.00 | 14 |
| Jose Alvarado RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-3 | 9.64 | 6 |
| Brad Keller RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28-17 | 5.14 | 28 |
| Jhoan Duran RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 1.35 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningBarrosa struck out swinging.
- 2nd InningTawa grounded out to third.
- 8th InningBohm struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPerdomo walked.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningFernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to third.3–4
- 1st InningMarte homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
- 3rd InningHarper homered to center (419 feet).2–4
- 3rd InningSchwarber homered to right (381 feet), Bohm scored and Crawford scored.2–3
- 1st InningDel Castillo singled to center, Carroll scored.2–0