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In The Rafters

ARI @ PHI

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET64°F · 11 mph wind · partly cloudy⚾ Zac Gallen vs Zach PopMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks 4 · Philadelphia Phillies 3

Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeCitizens Bank ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Arizona Diamondbacks gets the model’s nod thanks to Arizona Diamondbacks’s margin advantage, with Philadelphia Phillies’s recent run providing the second tip. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 69%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25
Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreFernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored.8th Inning3–3
  2. ScoreDel Castillo singled to right, Fernandez scored, Marte to third.8th Inning4–3
  3. 🏃 DoubleMcCann doubled to center, Arenado scored.2nd Inning1–0
  4. 🏃 DoubleHarper doubled to right, Schwarber scored.6th Inning2–3
  5. ScoreArenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored, Carroll to third.6th Inning2–0
  6. ScoreTurner homered to right center (359 feet), Crawford scored.6th Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Arizona Diamondbacks010001020490
Philadelphia Phillies0000030003101

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·1-5511000112.394.429.636
Corbin Carroll RF·2-4402001124.327.414.653
Geraldo Perdomo SS·0-4410000019.157.286.255
Jose Fernandez 1B·2-4412100119.333.333.528
Nolan Arenado 3B·1-221110008.180.192.200
Ketel Marte 2B0-000000105.197.269.328
Tim Tawa LF·0-3300000116.107.212.143
Adrian Del Castillo C1-110110004.353.353.412
Luken Baker 1B0-000000000.000.000.000
James McCann C·2-4402100218.200.238.350
Alek Thomas CF·0-3300000213.133.188.222
Jorge Barrosa LF·0-4400000319.200.222.371

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Zac Gallen SP·5.083312184-533.6084
Jonathan Loaisiga RP1.00000009-72.169
Taylor Clarke RP1.010000015-104.7015
Kevin Ginkel RP0.110011012-56.3512
Ryan Thompson RP0.20000005-20.005
Paul Sewald RP1.000002011-92.8411

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·2-4412210012.254.299.365
Kyle Schwarber LF·2-4412000111.212.379.500
Bryce Harper 1B·2-3302101016.273.375.527
Brandon Marsh LF·2-4402000015.269.291.442
Bryson Stott 2B·1-4401000116.196.260.217
Adolis Garcia RF·0-4400000116.204.279.352
Alec Bohm 3B·0-3300001115.148.233.222
Rafael Marchan C·0-4400000017.053.100.211
Justin Crawford CF·1-4411000118.341.408.477

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Zach Pop RP·2.031101037-253.6837
Andrew Painter SP5.031117080-543.7780
Jose Alvarado RP0.122200013-812.6013
Jonathan Bowlan RP0.210012018-123.8618
Tim Mayza RP1.00000109-70.009

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 2nd InningMarchán flied out to center.
  2. 8th InningHarper walked.
  3. 2nd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
  4. 8th InningPitch 4 : Ball 4

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningFernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored.3–3
  2. 8th InningDel Castillo singled to right, Fernandez scored, Marte to third.4–3
  3. 2nd InningMcCann doubled to center, Arenado scored.1–0
  4. 6th InningHarper doubled to right, Schwarber scored.2–3
  5. 6th InningArenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored, Carroll to third.2–0
  6. 6th InningTurner homered to right center (359 feet), Crawford scored.2–2

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