MIA @ DET
Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET74°F · 12 mph wind · overcast⚾ Sandy Alcantara vs Tarik SkubalMLB.TVMarlins.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers
Miami Marlins 2 · Detroit Tigers 8
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeComerica ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Detroit Tigers because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Detroit Tigers has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 51%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 6.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 51%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMcGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- ScoreCarpenter homered to right (363 feet), Greene scored.0–6
- ScoreMcGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- ScoreDingler homered to left (404 feet), Keith scored and Greene scored.0–3
- ScoreLopez homered to left center (377 feet).2–8
- ScoreLopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–7
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Detroit Tigers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | — | 8 | 12 | 0 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .190 | .250 | .190 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .214 | .313 | .304 |
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .145 | .250 | .226 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .327 | .377 | .545 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .132 | .267 | .184 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .238 | .377 | .405 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .350 | .400 | .517 |
| Deyvison De Los Santos 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Liam Hicks C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .279 | .347 | .512 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .342 | .359 | .421 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara SP· | 6.0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 100-59 | 2.67 | 100 |
| Tyler Phillips RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 37-22 | 0.84 | 37 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .322 | .412 | .508 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .214 | .348 | .286 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .340 | .375 | .472 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .250 | .348 | .367 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .353 | .477 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .208 | .316 | .417 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .213 | .373 | .255 |
| Zach McKinstry 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .184 | .244 | .289 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .316 | .341 | .474 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal SP· | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 96-62 | 2.22 | 96 |
| Kyle Finnegan RP | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-9 | 0.00 | 14 |
| Connor Seabold RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15-12 | 1.23 | 15 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningKeith struck out swinging.
- 7th InningGreene walked.
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 7th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
- 7th InningNorby struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningMcGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- 6th InningCarpenter homered to right (363 feet), Greene scored.0–6
- 8th InningMcGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- 1st InningDingler homered to left (404 feet), Keith scored and Greene scored.0–3
- 9th InningLopez homered to left center (377 feet).2–8
- 7th InningLopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–7
- 6th InningBáez singled to center, Torkelson scored, Báez to second, McKinstry to third.0–7
- 5th InningMcGonigle homered to right center (408 feet).0–4