ARI @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:35 PM ET74°F · 10 mph wind · clear⚾ Ryne Nelson vs Dean KremerMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles
Arizona Diamondbacks 7 · Baltimore Orioles 9
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOriole Park at Camden YardsHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Baltimore Orioles on the back of Arizona Diamondbacks’s margin work and Baltimore Orioles’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at 73%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Pre-game pick: Arizona Diamondbacks at 73%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreArenado homered to left (397 feet), Fernandez scored.4–1
- ScoreArenado homered to center (401 feet), Del Castillo scored and Vargas scored.7–1
- ScoreMarte homered to right (405 feet).2–0
- ScoreJackson homered to center (427 feet).7–9
- ScoreAlonso homered to left center (399 feet), Ward scored.7–8
- ScoreJackson homered to left (406 feet), Beavers scored, Taveras scored and Cowser scored.7–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | 9 | 8 | 1 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .212 | .278 | .424 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .321 | .403 | .623 |
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .148 | .284 | .241 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .333 | .333 | .381 |
| Jose Fernandez 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .300 | .300 | .475 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .405 | .436 | .649 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .204 | .214 | .333 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | .122 | .173 | .204 |
| Jorge Barrosa LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .231 | .250 | .410 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson SP· | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 92-57 | 3.54 | 92 |
| Taylor Rashi RP | 0.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15-10 | 9.82 | 15 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19-9 | 4.00 | 19 |
| Andrew Hoffmann RP | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14-8 | 1.13 | 14 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .239 | .329 | .582 |
| Taylor Ward LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | .333 | .427 | .492 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .213 | .314 | .377 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .136 | .240 | .273 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .250 | .311 | .350 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | .360 | .467 | .480 |
| Colton Cowser RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .219 | .316 | .250 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .318 | .326 | .545 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .229 | .289 | .257 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer SP· | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 80-55 | 3.60 | 80 |
| Albert Suarez RP | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 40-25 | 5.14 | 40 |
| Rico Garcia RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-6 | 0.00 | 11 |
| Ryan Helsley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12-8 | 2.84 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningAlexander reached first base on catcher's interference.
- 3rd InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 7th InningDel Castillo flied out to center.
- 6th InningDel Castillo singled to center.
Scoring Plays
- 4th InningArenado homered to left (397 feet), Fernandez scored.4–1
- 6th InningArenado homered to center (401 feet), Del Castillo scored and Vargas scored.7–1
- 3rd InningMarte homered to right (405 feet).2–0
- 8th InningJackson homered to center (427 feet).7–9
- 7th InningAlonso homered to left center (399 feet), Ward scored.7–8
- 6th InningJackson homered to left (406 feet), Beavers scored, Taveras scored and Cowser scored.7–6
- 6th InningTaveras singled to left, Alonso scored, Beavers to second.7–2
- 3rd InningHenderson tripled to center, Alexander scored.2–1
- 1st InningMarte homered to right (443 feet).1–0