MIA @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET70°F · 5 mph wind · clear⚾ Eury Perez vs Grant HolmesMLB.TVBravesVisionMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
Miami Marlins 10 · Atlanta Braves 4
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Miami Marlins because Atlanta Braves owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Atlanta Braves has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 83%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 6.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 83%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRamírez reached on infield single to third, Hernández scored, Marsee to third.8–4
- ScoreRiley grounded out to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.6–4
- ScoreHicks reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Ramírez to second.9–4
- ScoreNorby homered to left (380 feet).7–4
- ScoreSmith hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.3–3
- ScoreYastrzemski singled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.3–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .152 | .260 | .227 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .359 | .414 | .516 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .250 | .348 | .383 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .319 | .370 | .532 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .317 | .364 | .517 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | .267 | .333 | .489 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .255 | .379 | .468 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .163 | .280 | .209 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | .167 | .189 | .278 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez SP· | 4.0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 76-45 | 5.40 | 76 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-9 | 1.80 | 16 |
| Calvin Faucher RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21-7 | 5.40 | 21 |
| John King RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-4 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Lake Bachar RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 35-23 | 3.00 | 35 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-6 | 6.43 | 10 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .242 | .338 | .379 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .300 | .372 | .543 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | .299 | .382 | .597 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .226 | .324 | .274 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .192 | .300 | .269 |
| Kyle Farmer 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .333 | .286 | .500 |
| Jorge Mateo SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .438 | .471 | .688 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .288 | .333 | .424 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .353 | .378 | .647 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .259 | .298 | .389 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .339 | .381 | .542 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes SP· | 4.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 59-34 | 3.32 | 59 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22-14 | 5.40 | 22 |
| Rolddy Munoz RP | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 49-30 | 13.50 | 49 |
| Jose Suarez RP | 2.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 34-21 | 8.64 | 34 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningLopez lined out to left.
- 6th InningRamírez reached on infield single to third, Hernández scored, Marsee to third.8–4
- 6th InningMarsee walked.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningRamírez reached on infield single to third, Hernández scored, Marsee to third.8–4
- 5th InningRiley grounded out to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.6–4
- 6th InningHicks reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Ramírez to second.9–4
- 6th InningNorby homered to left (380 feet).7–4
- 4th InningSmith hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.3–3
- 4th InningYastrzemski singled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.3–2
- 4th InningRiley singled to left, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.3–1
- 5th InningRamírez homered to left center (418 feet), Pauley scored and Edwards scored.6–3
- 4th InningHicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored, Edwards to third.1–0
- 8th InningHicks singled to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.10–4
- 4th InningNorby singled to right, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second.3–0
- 4th InningLopez singled to left, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.2–0