MIA @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET⚾ Max Meyer vs Reynaldo LopezMLB.TVBravesVisionGray MediaMarlins.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Miami Marlins 5 · Atlanta Braves 6
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Atlanta Braves: Atlanta Braves’s scoring margin profile and Atlanta Braves’s recent stretch. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 82%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 1.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 82%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleSmith doubled to center, Albies scored, Baldwin scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–6
- ScoreMarsee singled to center, Pauley scored.4–0
- 💣 Home RunPauley doubled to right, Norby scored, Sanoja thrown out at home.3–0
- ScoreRamírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–0
- ScoreSmith singled to right, Albies scored.4–1
- ScoreLopez singled to right, Ramírez scored, Hicks to third.5–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 6 | 9 | 1 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .174 | .284 | .246 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .343 | .405 | .493 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .254 | .342 | .381 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .314 | .362 | .510 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .317 | .371 | .508 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | .245 | .309 | .449 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .255 | .371 | .451 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .357 | .372 | .429 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .175 | .195 | .300 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 82-55 | 4.12 | 82 |
| Michael Petersen RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22-14 | 3.38 | 22 |
| Pete Fairbanks RP | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26-19 | 10.80 | 26 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .232 | .333 | .362 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .311 | .378 | .554 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .296 | .375 | .592 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .212 | .307 | .258 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .196 | .297 | .268 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .290 | .342 | .435 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .395 | .415 | .684 |
| Jorge Mateo SS | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .438 | .471 | .688 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .241 | .279 | .362 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .339 | .379 | .532 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 96-53 | 2.18 | 96 |
| Dylan Lee RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-8 | 1.17 | 11 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-7 | 1.29 | 12 |
| Robert Suarez RP | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21-14 | 1.29 | 21 |
| Raisel Iglesias RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10-7 | 0.00 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningCaissie struck out looking.
- 2nd InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking
- 5th InningOlson grounded out to first.
- 2nd InningEdwards lined out to left.
- 2nd InningPitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningSmith doubled to center, Albies scored, Baldwin scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–6
- 2nd InningMarsee singled to center, Pauley scored.4–0
- 2nd InningPauley doubled to right, Norby scored, Sanoja thrown out at home.3–0
- 1st InningRamírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–0
- 2nd InningSmith singled to right, Albies scored.4–1
- 8th InningLopez singled to right, Ramírez scored, Hicks to third.5–3
- 3rd InningOlson doubled to right, Baldwin scored.4–3
- 3rd InningBaldwin doubled to center, Dubón scored.4–2
- 2nd InningNorby singled to center, Lopez scored, Norby to second.2–0