MIA @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET73°F · 7 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Chris Paddack vs Bryce ElderMLB.TVBravesVisionMarlins.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Miami Marlins 3 · Atlanta Braves 6
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Atlanta Braves is the model’s call — Atlanta Braves on the margin numbers, Atlanta Braves on the form numbers. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 81%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 3.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 81%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreDubón singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.0–2
- ScoreHernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Norby scored, Slater safe at second on error.3–6
- ScoreBaldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–4
- ScoreRiley homered to left center (400 feet).0–3
- ScoreHicks homered to right (358 feet), Lopez scored.2–6
- ScoreOlson homered to right (423 feet), Baldwin scored.0–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | — | 6 | 11 | 1 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .164 | .279 | .233 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .338 | .405 | .479 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | .328 | .387 | .507 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .309 | .355 | .545 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .273 | .379 | .473 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .235 | .298 | .431 |
| Austin Slater LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | .190 | .308 | .190 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .149 | .259 | .191 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .182 | .200 | .318 |
| Deyvison De Los Santos 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .286 | .286 | .429 |
| Agustin Ramirez C | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .250 | .338 | .375 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack SP· | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 92-61 | 5.59 | 92 |
| John King RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16-11 | 1.42 | 16 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22-16 | 6.00 | 22 |
| Calvin Faucher RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 4.50 | 9 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | .247 | .341 | .384 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .321 | .384 | .551 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .293 | .369 | .613 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .229 | .316 | .329 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .288 | .338 | .466 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .203 | .309 | .271 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .381 | .400 | .643 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .333 | .371 | .515 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .226 | .262 | .339 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder SP· | 5.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 79-53 | 0.77 | 79 |
| Dylan Lee RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12-5 | 1.13 | 12 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 1.13 | 14 |
| Osvaldo Bido RP | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15-10 | 6.30 | 15 |
| Robert Suarez RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-3 | 1.17 | 4 |
| Raisel Iglesias RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12-11 | 0.00 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningSlater walked.
- 3rd InningOlson lined out to center.
- 8th InningPitch 6 : Ball 4
- 3rd InningRiley fouled out to first.
- 3rd InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 8th InningNorby to third on wild pitch by Bido.
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningDubón singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.0–2
- 8th InningHernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Norby scored, Slater safe at second on error.3–6
- 7th InningBaldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–4
- 6th InningRiley homered to left center (400 feet).0–3
- 8th InningHicks homered to right (358 feet), Lopez scored.2–6
- 7th InningOlson homered to right (423 feet), Baldwin scored.0–6
- 2nd InningAlbies homered to right center (370 feet).0–1