TB @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET64°F · 5 mph wind · clear⚾ Nick Martinez vs Bubba ChandlerApple TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Rays 1 · Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Tampa Bay Rays’s last-ten momentum. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 60%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 4.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 60%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCaminero singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 🏃 DoubleLowe doubled to center, Cook scored and Griffin scored.1–5
- ScoreCruz homered to right center (385 feet), Griffin scored.1–3
- 🏃 DoubleHorwitz doubled to right, Ozuna scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | — | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .342 | .368 | .397 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .247 | .349 | .438 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .214 | .326 | .400 |
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .365 | .453 | .554 |
| Jake Fraley RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .214 | .283 | .357 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .241 | .317 | .315 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .129 | .191 | .226 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .321 | .345 | .453 |
| Richie Palacios 2B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .269 | .441 | .385 |
| Ryan Vilade RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .227 | .292 | .273 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez SP· | 5.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 88-53 | 2.45 | 88 |
| Griffin Jax RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14-10 | 8.10 | 14 |
| Yoendrys Gomez RP | 2.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 44-26 | 7.30 | 44 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .313 | .382 | .588 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | .286 | .390 | .643 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .264 | .379 | .431 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .313 | .400 | .493 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .169 | .246 | .237 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .246 | .292 | .295 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .265 | .383 | .367 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .222 | .308 | .311 |
| Henry Davis C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .205 | .326 | .282 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 90-62 | 3.15 | 90 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16-12 | 4.82 | 16 |
| Gregory Soto RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-8 | 0.84 | 10 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17-9 | 0.82 | 17 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningGriffin walked.
- 7th InningMullins struck out swinging.
- 6th InningCaminero singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 8th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 9th InningAranda struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningCaminero singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 8th InningLowe doubled to center, Cook scored and Griffin scored.1–5
- 6th InningCruz homered to right center (385 feet), Griffin scored.1–3
- 2nd InningHorwitz doubled to right, Ozuna scored.0–1