TB @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET50°F · 12 mph wind · overcast⚾ Shane McClanahan vs Mitch KellerMLB.TVRays.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Tampa Bay Rays 3 · Pittsburgh Pirates 6
Final
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Tampa Bay Rays’s last-ten momentum. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 59%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 3.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 59%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreYorke homered to left (394 feet).2–6
- ScoreHorwitz homered to right (383 feet).2–5
- ScoreReynolds singled to left, Cook scored and Gonzales scored.2–4
- ScoreReynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mangum scored, Gonzales out at second.0–1
- ScoreCaminero homered to left (398 feet).3–6
- ScoreGonzales singled to right, Bart scored, Gonzales to second, Cook to third.2–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 | 12 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .333 | .356 | .381 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .250 | .340 | .464 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .218 | .326 | .385 |
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .337 | .427 | .506 |
| Cedric Mullins CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .155 | .208 | .296 |
| Richie Palacios 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .290 | .436 | .419 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .302 | .333 | .512 |
| Hunter Feduccia C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .217 | .357 | .217 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .237 | .293 | .263 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan SP· | 4.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 90-65 | 5.00 | 90 |
| Mason Englert RP | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 38-24 | 7.11 | 38 |
| Ian Seymour RP | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22-15 | 8.44 | 22 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum LF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | .283 | .353 | .326 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .258 | .300 | .303 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .266 | .392 | .418 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | .188 | .253 | .304 |
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | .292 | .364 | .551 |
| Nick Yorke 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .246 | .343 | .351 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .218 | .290 | .291 |
| Joey Bart C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .156 | .222 | .281 |
| Billy Cook RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .375 | .375 | .375 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .255 | .382 | .400 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller SP· | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 89-58 | 2.79 | 89 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-6 | 1.32 | 8 |
| Wilber Dotel RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12-9 | 9.00 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 1st InningMangum doubled to right.
- 5th InningOzuna struck out swinging.
- 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball In Play
- 6th InningMangum struck out swinging.
- 5th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningYorke homered to left (394 feet).2–6
- 6th InningHorwitz homered to right (383 feet).2–5
- 5th InningReynolds singled to left, Cook scored and Gonzales scored.2–4
- 1st InningReynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mangum scored, Gonzales out at second.0–1
- 9th InningCaminero homered to left (398 feet).3–6
- 5th InningGonzales singled to right, Bart scored, Gonzales to second, Cook to third.2–2
- 5th InningFeduccia singled to right, Palacios scored and DeLuca scored.2–1