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InTheRafters.com

BAL @ KC

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Kyle Bradish vs Seth LugoMLB.TVRoyals.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles 7 · Kansas City Royals 5

Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Baltimore Orioles is the model’s call — Kansas City Royals on the margin numbers, Kansas City Royals on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 80%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Kansas City Royals

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29
Kansas City Royals
IC Isaac Collins LF · #1 KI Kyle Isbel CF · #28 JC Jac Caglianone RF · #14 MG Maikel Garcia 3B · #11 BW Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7 MM Michael Massey 2B · #19 VP V. Pasquantino 1B · #9 CR Cole Ragans P · #55 SP Salvador Perez C · #13

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreBasallo singled to left, Mayo scored.12th Inning3–2
  2. ScoreBeavers singled to right, Alexander scored.11th Inning2–1
  3. ScoreWitt Jr. singled to left, Collins scored.11th Inning2–2
  4. ScoreBasallo singled to center, Beavers scored, Alonso to third.9th Inning1–1
  5. 🏃 DoubleLoftin doubled to left, Pasquantino scored, Thomas scored and Perez scored.12th Inning7–5
  6. ScoreTaveras homered to center (419 feet), Basallo scored, Jackson scored and Wilson scored.12th Inning7–2

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789101112RHE
Baltimore Orioles000000001015760
Kansas City Royals0100000000135140

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Gunnar Henderson SS·0-4400002331.196.282.464
Taylor Ward LF·1-4401002033.293.394.457
Dylan Beavers RF·1-5511100119.211.292.281
Pete Alonso 1B·0-4400001217.198.317.326
Coby Mayo 3B0-001000000.148.258.185
Samuel Basallo C·2-3312202021.167.275.317
Jeremiah Jackson 2B·1-5511000016.296.311.535
Colton Cowser RF·0-220000029.167.255.188
Weston Wilson 3B0-2210001217.286.444.429
Leody Taveras CF·1-5511410119.341.453.545
Blaze Alexander 3B·0-5510000318.192.250.212

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Kyle Bradish SP·5.11011371104-633.96104
Rico Garcia RP1.000011016-100.0016
Grant Wolfram RP0.210001017-82.8917
Yennier Cano RP1.000000017-111.2317
Ryan Helsley RP1.000002012-71.9312
Anthony Nunez RP2.011011025-151.5925
Cameron Foster RP1.023211020-139.8220

Kansas City Royals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia 3B·3-6603000125.272.333.402
Bobby Witt Jr. SS·2-5502101130.287.370.356
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B·0-4410002125.149.240.253
Salvador Perez C·3-6613000119.176.220.306
Carter Jensen C·1-4401000121.238.310.492
Lane Thomas CF0-001000106.195.340.220
Michael Massey 2B·0-3300000112.154.185.231
Nick Loftin 3B2-220230109.364.500.545
Jac Caglianone RF·1-4411111116.269.347.403
Elias Diaz C0-110000003.500.500.750
Isaac Collins LF·2-6612000221.196.286.268
Kyle Isbel CF·0-5500000424.241.305.370

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Seth Lugo SP·7.010047093-591.1593
Matt Strahm RP1.000003020-143.5220
Lucas Erceg RP1.011130032-176.4832
Daniel Lynch IV RP1.101002012-91.0012
John Schreiber RP0.210000012-65.6312
Alex Lange RP1.035412131-198.3831

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningWard walked.
  2. 8th InningWilson struck out swinging.
  3. 9th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
  4. 8th InningPitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

Scoring Plays

  1. 12th InningBasallo singled to left, Mayo scored.3–2
  2. 11th InningBeavers singled to right, Alexander scored.2–1
  3. 11th InningWitt Jr. singled to left, Collins scored.2–2
  4. 9th InningBasallo singled to center, Beavers scored, Alonso to third.1–1
  5. 12th InningLoftin doubled to left, Pasquantino scored, Thomas scored and Perez scored.7–5
  6. 12th InningTaveras homered to center (419 feet), Basallo scored, Jackson scored and Wilson scored.7–2
  7. 2nd InningCaglianone homered to center (437 feet).0–1

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