ATH @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Jacob Lopez vs Luis CastilloMLB.TVMariners.TV
Result readAthletics
Athletics 5 · Seattle Mariners 2
Final
Athletics21-19-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 50%
Seattle Mariners19-22+0.0 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeT-Mobile ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Athletics gets the model’s nod thanks to Seattle Mariners’s margin advantage, with Athletics’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 52%. Actual: Athletics by 3.
Pre-game pick: Seattle Mariners at 52%. Actual: Athletics by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Athletics
Roster watch list pending.
Seattle Mariners
- Bryan Woo SP · #22
- George Kirby SP · #68
- Cal Raleigh C · #29
- Cole Young 2B · #2
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
Patrick Wisdom10-Day-ILVictor Robles10-Day-ILBryce Miller15-Day-ILTeddy McGrawDay-To-DayJose Ferrerpaternity
Athletics
Jacob WilsonDay-To-DayMax Muncy10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke10-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleWilson doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.3–2
- ScoreWilson singled to center, Kurtz scored, Soderstrom to second, Langeliers to third.5–2
- ScoreMcNeil homered to right center (395 feet).2–1
- ScoreLangeliers homered to center (417 feet).4–2
- ScoreRaleigh homered to left center (367 feet).2–2
- ScoreNaylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.1–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Athletics
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | .228 | .419 | .380 |
| Shea Langeliers C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .312 | .379 | .613 |
| Carlos Cortes RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | .319 | .396 | .532 |
| Tyler Soderstrom LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .226 | .314 | .409 |
| Jacob Wilson SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | .270 | .277 | .370 |
| Jeff McNeil 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .278 | .361 | .389 |
| Max Muncy 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | .262 | .312 | .440 |
| Lawrence Butler RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .200 | .277 | .307 |
| Zack Gelof CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .188 | .188 | .250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez SP· | 5.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 86-52 | 5.70 | 86 |
| Scott Barlow RP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-14 | 4.09 | 26 |
| Hogan Harris RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-5 | 2.45 | 8 |
| Jack Perkins RP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26-18 | 3.86 | 26 |
Seattle Mariners
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .074 | .167 | .185 |
| Luke Raley RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | .296 | .351 | .592 |
| Cal Raleigh C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .177 | .266 | .333 |
| Julio Rodriguez CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .237 | .336 | .301 |
| Josh Naylor 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .170 | .253 | .261 |
| Randy Arozarena LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .278 | .381 | .400 |
| J.P. Crawford SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .182 | .348 | .291 |
| Mitch Garver C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .130 | .259 | .130 |
| Cole Young 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .244 | .337 | .360 |
| Leo Rivas 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .143 | .279 | .196 |
| Dominic Canzone RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .269 | .328 | .558 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 95-62 | 5.01 | 95 |
| Eduard Bazardo RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27-20 | 1.74 | 27 |
| Gabe Speier RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9-8 | 2.79 | 9 |
| Cole Wilcox RP | 2.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 45-31 | 6.30 | 45 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningNaylor grounded out to second.
- 6th InningMcNeil lined out to center.
- 1st InningCortes struck out swinging.
- 9th InningMuncy struck out swinging.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningWilson doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.3–2
- 9th InningWilson singled to center, Kurtz scored, Soderstrom to second, Langeliers to third.5–2
- 4th InningMcNeil homered to right center (395 feet).2–1
- 7th InningLangeliers homered to center (417 feet).4–2
- 5th InningRaleigh homered to left center (367 feet).2–2
- 3rd InningNaylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.1–1
- 1st InningSoderstrom doubled to right, Kurtz scored.1–0