BAL @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Shane Baz vs Kris BubicMLB.TVRoyals.TV
Result readKansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles 5 · Kansas City Royals 6
Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Kansas City Royals: Kansas City Royals’s scoring margin profile and Kansas City Royals’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 79%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 1.
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 79%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Injury Report
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMassey homered to right (412 feet).5–5
- ScoreMassey hit sacrifice fly to right, Jensen scored.3–1
- ScoreGarcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
- ScoreRutschman homered to left center (394 feet), Henderson scored.5–4
- ScorePasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.3–3
- ScoreGarcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .281 | .386 | .438 |
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .198 | .281 | .465 |
| Adley Rutschman C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .316 | .395 | .553 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .211 | .324 | .344 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .297 | .321 | .527 |
| Weston Wilson 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | .300 | .462 | .400 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .313 | .421 | .500 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .158 | .262 | .246 |
| Samuel Basallo C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | .167 | .286 | .317 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .185 | .254 | .204 |
| Colton Cowser RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .163 | .250 | .184 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz SP· | 6.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 98-62 | 5.08 | 98 |
| Grant Wolfram RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 2.70 | 12 |
| Rico Garcia RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18-13 | 0.75 | 18 |
| Ryan Helsley RP | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22-9 | 2.79 | 22 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | .274 | .346 | .400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .289 | .371 | .367 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .143 | .229 | .242 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .180 | .221 | .315 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .258 | .333 | .515 |
| Michael Massey 2B· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .207 | .226 | .414 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .254 | .329 | .380 |
| Isaac Collins LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .183 | .269 | .250 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | .276 | .333 | .431 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 100-66 | 4.08 | 100 |
| Nick Mears RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14-9 | 3.12 | 14 |
| Matt Strahm RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 31-22 | 5.19 | 31 |
| Lucas Erceg RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14-6 | 5.79 | 14 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningWilson struck out looking.
- 6th InningPitch 12 : Strike 3 Looking
- 6th InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
- 6th InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 2nd InningWilson walked, Jackson to second.
- 9th InningGarcia walked.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningMassey homered to right (412 feet).5–5
- 2nd InningMassey hit sacrifice fly to right, Jensen scored.3–1
- 9th InningGarcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
- 8th InningRutschman homered to left center (394 feet), Henderson scored.5–4
- 5th InningPasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.3–3
- 9th InningGarcia scored on Helsley wild pitch.5–6
- 2nd InningMayo homered to left (439 feet), Jackson scored and Wilson scored.3–0
- 7th InningWitt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored.3–4
- 5th InningGarcia singled to center, Isbel scored.3–2