STL @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Dustin May vs Chris PaddackMLB.TVCardinals.TVMarlins.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5 · Miami Marlins 3
Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
St. Louis Cardinals gets the model’s nod thanks to St. Louis Cardinals’s margin advantage, with St. Louis Cardinals’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 61%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 2.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 61%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBurleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to second.1–0
- ScoreHernández singled to right, Edwards scored and Hicks scored, Sanoja to third.5–3
- ScoreGorman singled to left, Burleson scored.5–1
- ScoreMarsee homered to right (351 feet).1–1
- ScoreChurch homered to right (370 feet), Winn scored.4–1
- ScoreBurleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | .229 | .377 | .361 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .229 | .393 | .349 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .278 | .359 | .444 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | .292 | .357 | .607 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .203 | .274 | .324 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .257 | .354 | .400 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .231 | .281 | .365 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .196 | .255 | .304 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .207 | .266 | .224 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May SP· | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 97-59 | 5.84 | 97 |
| Justin Bruihl RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27-16 | 5.84 | 27 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 32-15 | 9.00 | 32 |
| George Soriano RP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6-5 | 4.66 | 6 |
| Riley O'Brien RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17-11 | 0.00 | 17 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .176 | .303 | .264 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .300 | .462 | .400 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | .318 | .371 | .523 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33 | .348 | .431 | .483 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .324 | .373 | .527 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .212 | .284 | .353 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | .224 | .270 | .388 |
| Austin Slater LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .174 | .286 | .174 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .320 | .370 | .380 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .173 | .204 | .288 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .154 | .290 | .192 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .247 | .341 | .397 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack SP· | 4.2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 90-60 | 6.38 | 90 |
| John King RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-14 | 0.90 | 19 |
| Tyler Phillips RP | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 40-26 | 0.60 | 40 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningEdwards walked.
- 6th InningEdwards popped out to shortstop.
- 8th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
- 8th InningGorman struck out swinging.
- 6th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningBurleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to second.1–0
- 8th InningHernández singled to right, Edwards scored and Hicks scored, Sanoja to third.5–3
- 5th InningGorman singled to left, Burleson scored.5–1
- 1st InningMarsee homered to right (351 feet).1–1
- 4th InningChurch homered to right (370 feet), Winn scored.4–1
- 3rd InningBurleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.2–1