BAL @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:10 PM CT⚾ Chris Bassitt vs Michael WachaESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVRoyals.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 8 · Kansas City Royals 6
Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to Baltimore Orioles on the back of Kansas City Royals’s margin work and Kansas City Royals’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 80%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 80%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Kansas City Royals
- Cole Ragans SP · #55
- Kris Bubic SP · #50
- Luinder Avila RP · #58
- Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7
Injury Report
Kansas City Royals
Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreJensen homered to center (421 feet).8–4
- ScoreTaveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Taveras to second, Basallo to third.3–3
- ScoreJensen singled to center, Pasquantino scored.2–2
- ScoreIsbel homered to right (406 feet), Massey scored.8–6
- ScoreJackson singled to left, Basallo scored and Taveras scored.5–3
- ScorePasquantino homered to right (422 feet).2–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 1 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | .189 | .269 | .443 |
| Taylor Ward LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | .283 | .395 | .444 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .226 | .300 | .323 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .213 | .327 | .372 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .172 | .284 | .313 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .327 | .426 | .500 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .295 | .317 | .513 |
| Colton Cowser RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .189 | .267 | .226 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .164 | .261 | .295 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt SP· | 5.1 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 88-55 | 6.75 | 88 |
| Yennier Cano RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11-8 | 2.16 | 11 |
| Tyler Wells RP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10-7 | 3.68 | 10 |
| Anthony Nunez RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22-14 | 1.46 | 22 |
Kansas City Royals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .265 | .336 | .388 |
| Nick Loftin 3B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .308 | .438 | .462 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .284 | .364 | .358 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .160 | .248 | .298 |
| Salvador Perez C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .172 | .212 | .301 |
| Carter Jensen C· | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .275 | .354 | .565 |
| Michael Massey 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .242 | .257 | .455 |
| Jac Caglianone RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .253 | .325 | .373 |
| Lane Thomas CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | .200 | .333 | .222 |
| Kyle Isbel CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .274 | .328 | .468 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha SP· | 5.1 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 89-56 | 2.51 | 89 |
| Eli Morgan RP | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22-18 | 2.79 | 22 |
| Alex Lange RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18-10 | 7.59 | 18 |
| Mason Black RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24-12 | 0.00 | 24 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningHenderson struck out looking.
- 9th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
- 5th InningHenderson struck out looking.
Scoring Plays
- 6th InningJensen homered to center (421 feet).8–4
- 6th InningTaveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Taveras to second, Basallo to third.3–3
- 4th InningJensen singled to center, Pasquantino scored.2–2
- 6th InningIsbel homered to right (406 feet), Massey scored.8–6
- 6th InningJackson singled to left, Basallo scored and Taveras scored.5–3
- 1st InningPasquantino homered to right (422 feet).2–1
- 6th InningMayo homered to left center (452 feet), Jackson scored and Cowser scored.8–3
- 4th InningThomas singled to center, Jensen scored, Caglianone to second.2–3
- 1st InningAlonso homered to right center (410 feet), Ward scored.2–0