CIN @ TB
Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor1:10 PM ET⚾ Brandon Williamson vs Nick MartinezMLB.TVReds.TVRays.TV
Result readTampa Bay Rays
Cincinnati Reds 1 · Tampa Bay Rays 6
Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Tampa Bay Rays26-13-1+0.5 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 85%
Venue EdgeTropicana FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa Bay Rays’s scoring margin profile and Tampa Bay Rays’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 83%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 5.
Pre-game pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 83%. Actual: Tampa Bay Rays by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Rasmussen SP · #57
- Nick Martinez SP · #28
- Cole Sulser RP · #71
- Griffin Jax RP · #22
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
Ty JohnsonDay-To-DayJohn RooneyDay-To-DayGavin Lux10-Day-ILTJ NicholsDay-To-DayAustin VernonDay-To-Day
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCaminero grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Aranda to second, Díaz to third.1–6
- ScoreHiggins hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, Steer to third.1–4
- ScoreCaminero homered to right center (404 feet).0–4
- ScoreDíaz singled to center, Williamson scored, Walls to third.0–3
- 💣 Home RunSimpson hit sacrifice fly to right, DeLuca scored on error, Williamson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Benson.0–2
- ScoreWilliamson singled to center, Vilade scored, DeLuca to third.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .161 | .263 | .184 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .211 | .336 | .267 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .265 | .330 | .549 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .297 | .389 | .615 |
| Eugenio Suarez 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .231 | .300 | .363 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .233 | .324 | .333 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .221 | .291 | .442 |
| Will Benson RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | .176 | .333 | .265 |
| P.J. Higgins C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .200 | .308 | .200 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson SP· | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 87-54 | 5.40 | 87 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 29-20 | 2.25 | 29 |
| Tony Santillan RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6-4 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Brock Burke RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 0.79 | 9 |
Tampa Bay Rays
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .340 | .426 | .489 |
| Jonathan Aranda 1B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .224 | .361 | .412 |
| Junior Caminero 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .260 | .345 | .479 |
| Ryan Vilade RF· | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .286 | .355 | .357 |
| Richie Palacios 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .263 | .417 | .368 |
| Jonny DeLuca RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .280 | .321 | .480 |
| Ben Williamson 2B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .242 | .319 | .306 |
| Chandler Simpson LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .323 | .347 | .365 |
| Nick Fortes C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .290 | .343 | .403 |
| Taylor Walls SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .208 | .269 | .229 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez SP· | 8.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 95-71 | 2.10 | 95 |
| Kevin Kelly RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-10 | 5.23 | 13 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningVilade walked.
- 9th InningStewart grounded out to third.
- 6th InningSimpson flied out to left.
- 2nd InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningCaminero grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Aranda to second, Díaz to third.1–6
- 5th InningHiggins hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, Steer to third.1–4
- 3rd InningCaminero homered to right center (404 feet).0–4
- 2nd InningDíaz singled to center, Williamson scored, Walls to third.0–3
- 2nd InningSimpson hit sacrifice fly to right, DeLuca scored on error, Williamson safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Benson.0–2
- 2nd InningWilliamson singled to center, Vilade scored, DeLuca to third.0–1
- 5th InningVilade singled to right, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.1–5