STL @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameIndoor12:10 PM ET⚾ Kyle Leahy vs Janson JunkMLB.TVCardinals.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
St. Louis Cardinals 1 · Miami Marlins 4
Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Miami Marlins: St. Louis Cardinals’s scoring margin profile and St. Louis Cardinals’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 66%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 3.
Pre-game pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 66%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreMarsee walked, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second, Caissie to third.0–2
- ScoreRamírez singled to center, Lopez scored.0–4
- 💣 Home RunMarsee singled to right, Jiménez scored, Sanoja thrown out at third.0–3
- ScoreHerrera homered to left center (388 feet).1–4
- ScoreCaissie singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 12 | 1 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .218 | .364 | .345 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .230 | .387 | .379 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .208 | .284 | .338 |
| Ramon Urias 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .186 | .294 | .395 |
| Jose Fermin LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .208 | .286 | .375 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | .236 | .295 | .364 |
| Thomas Saggese LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .180 | .241 | .220 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .204 | .259 | .306 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .197 | .254 | .213 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy SP· | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 89-50 | 5.63 | 89 |
| Gordon Graceffo RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18-9 | 0.77 | 18 |
| Matt Svanson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-5 | 11.08 | 8 |
| Ryan Fernandez RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17-12 | 2.45 | 17 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | .179 | .307 | .263 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .330 | .411 | .457 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .315 | .366 | .511 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .321 | .368 | .513 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .227 | .303 | .364 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .179 | .303 | .214 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .225 | .269 | .380 |
| Leo Jimenez 2B· | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | .273 | .429 | .273 |
| Graham Pauley 3B | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .185 | .214 | .296 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .352 | .397 | .407 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk SP· | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 56-38 | 3.67 | 56 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13-10 | 5.40 | 13 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-8 | 6.75 | 9 |
| Michael Petersen RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13-10 | 3.38 | 13 |
| Lake Bachar RP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9-4 | 3.09 | 9 |
| Pete Fairbanks RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 7.27 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningChurch struck out swinging.
- 6th InningScott II struck out swinging.
- 4th InningEdwards grounded out to first.
- 9th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 2nd InningMarsee walked, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second, Caissie to third.0–2
- 5th InningRamírez singled to center, Lopez scored.0–4
- 4th InningMarsee singled to right, Jiménez scored, Sanoja thrown out at third.0–3
- 9th InningHerrera homered to left center (388 feet).1–4
- 2nd InningCaissie singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.0–1