PIT @ MIL
American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Paul Skenes vs Brandon WoodruffESPN UnlmtdMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 6 · Milwaukee Brewers 0
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Pittsburgh Pirates: Milwaukee Brewers’s scoring margin profile and Milwaukee Brewers’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 73%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 73%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 6.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
Injury Report
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreCruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Horwitz scored, Griffin third.3–0
- ScoreGriffin singled to center, Gonzales scored and O'Hearn scored, Cook to third.6–0
- ScoreGriffin homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- ScoreHorwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored.4–0
- 💣 Home RunGonzales singled to left, Lowe scored, Reynolds thrown out at second.2–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .271 | .333 | .542 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .247 | .343 | .539 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | .245 | .374 | .383 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .294 | .357 | .333 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .165 | .228 | .259 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .333 | .420 | .524 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .284 | .326 | .321 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .262 | .388 | .385 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .375 | .375 | .375 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .214 | .273 | .314 |
| Henry Davis C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .173 | .283 | .231 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes SP· | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 93-62 | 2.48 | 93 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9-7 | 4.35 | 9 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14-8 | 1.23 | 14 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | .271 | .406 | .494 |
| William Contreras C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .278 | .356 | .411 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .241 | .302 | .456 |
| Tyler Black 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .171 | .244 | .257 |
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .246 | .410 | .393 |
| Blake Perkins LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .132 | .250 | .211 |
| Sal Frelick RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .205 | .303 | .269 |
| Greg Jones LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .182 | .182 | .182 |
| Brandon Lockridge LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .262 | .333 | .308 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .237 | .366 | .237 |
| Joey Ortiz SS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .190 | .266 | .190 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff SP· | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 71-50 | 3.77 | 71 |
| Shane Drohan RP | 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 71-49 | 5.40 | 71 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningReynolds walked.
- 9th InningCruz struck out swinging.
- 8th InningGonzales safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hamilton, O'Hearn to second.
- 7th InningBauers singled to center.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningCruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Horwitz scored, Griffin third.3–0
- 8th InningGriffin singled to center, Gonzales scored and O'Hearn scored, Cook to third.6–0
- 3rd InningGriffin homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
- 6th InningHorwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored.4–0
- 4th InningGonzales singled to left, Lowe scored, Reynolds thrown out at second.2–0