DET @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET64°F · 9 mph wind · clear⚾ Jack Flaherty vs Brady SingerMLB.TV
Result readCincinnati Reds
Detroit Tigers 2 · Cincinnati Reds 9
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Cincinnati Reds: Detroit Tigers’s scoring margin profile and Detroit Tigers’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 89%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 7.
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 89%. Actual: Cincinnati Reds by 7.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Cincinnati Reds
- Andrew Abbott SP · #41
- Brady Singer SP · #51
- Elly De La Cruz SS · #44
- Matt McLain 2B · #9
Injury Report
Cincinnati Reds
Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreFriedl homered to right (368 feet).2–9
- ScoreDe La Cruz homered to left center (415 feet), Hayes scored.1–6
- ScoreStewart singled to right, Friedl scored and Hayes scored, De La Cruz to third.2–8
- ScoreLowe homered to right (350 feet).1–4
- ScoreStewart homered to left (366 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.1–3
- ScoreMcGonigle homered to center (405 feet).1–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | 9 | 10 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .333 | .424 | .539 |
| Matt Vierling CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .216 | .268 | .373 |
| Colt Keith 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | .329 | .361 | .418 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .306 | .409 | .480 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .238 | .319 | .464 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .225 | .321 | .493 |
| Jahmai Jones RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .241 | .241 | .483 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .212 | .343 | .400 |
| Wenceel Perez RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .103 | .146 | .179 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | .267 | .291 | .413 |
| Hao-Yu Lee 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .176 | .222 | .235 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty SP· | 2.0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 68-41 | 5.33 | 68 |
| Burch Smith RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 26-17 | 0.00 | 26 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28-18 | 4.50 | 28 |
| Connor Seabold RP | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17-7 | 4.09 | 17 |
| Drew Anderson RP | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 42-27 | 6.60 | 42 |
Cincinnati Reds
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl CF· | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .185 | .279 | .250 |
| Matt McLain 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | .214 | .342 | .327 |
| Elly De La Cruz SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21 | .275 | .352 | .569 |
| Sal Stewart 1B· | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | .303 | .398 | .626 |
| Nathaniel Lowe 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26 | .256 | .341 | .564 |
| Spencer Steer LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .226 | .305 | .429 |
| Tyler Stephenson C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | .159 | .289 | .270 |
| Will Benson RF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | .167 | .318 | .250 |
| Dane Myers CF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .250 | .400 | .333 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .106 | .181 | .167 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer SP· | 5.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 94-61 | 4.97 | 94 |
| Connor Phillips RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-6 | 2.16 | 7 |
| Graham Ashcraft RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13-8 | 1.29 | 13 |
| Sam Moll RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12-6 | 1.50 | 12 |
| Emilio Pagan RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11-6 | 4.38 | 11 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 2nd InningStewart reached on infield single to shortstop.
- 2nd InningPitch 11 : Ball In Play
- 2nd InningPitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul
- 6th InningHayes singled to left.
- 2nd InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul
- 9th InningMcGonigle lined out to center.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningFriedl homered to right (368 feet).2–9
- 2nd InningDe La Cruz homered to left center (415 feet), Hayes scored.1–6
- 6th InningStewart singled to right, Friedl scored and Hayes scored, De La Cruz to third.2–8
- 1st InningLowe homered to right (350 feet).1–4
- 1st InningStewart homered to left (366 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 1st InningMcGonigle homered to center (405 feet).1–0
- 4th InningTorkelson homered to center (395 feet).2–6