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In The Rafters

PIT @ MIL

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:10 PM CT⚾ Mitch Keller vs Jacob MisiorowskiMLB.TVBrewers.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 6 · Milwaukee Brewers 3

Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Milwaukee Brewers’s margin work and Milwaukee Brewers’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 72%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32
Milwaukee Brewers
BL B. Lockridge LF · #20 GM G. Mitchell CF · #5 SF Sal Frelick RF · #10 LR Luis Rengifo 3B · #13 JO Joey Ortiz SS · #3 BT Brice Turang 2B · #2 JB Jake Bauers 1B · #9 JM J. Misiorowski P · #32 WC W. Contreras C · #24

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMitchell grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Black to third.4th Inning2–1
  2. ScoreHorwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.6th Inning3–2
  3. ScoreGonzales singled to left, Reynolds scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones and Yorke scored on error.10th Inning6–3
  4. ScoreHorwitz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.4th Inning1–0
  5. ScoreReynolds singled to left, Davis scored, Yorke to second.10th Inning4–3
  6. ScoreFrelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Black scored.4th Inning2–2

Scoring by Inning

Team12345678910RHE
Pittsburgh Pirates0002010003691
Milwaukee Brewers0002010000361

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·0-5500000420.259.320.518
Brandon Lowe 2B·1-4401000213.247.340.527
Marcell Ozuna DH0-000000106.165.237.259
Nick Yorke 3B0-001000000.230.324.328
Bryan Reynolds LF·1-3321101218.247.383.381
Ryan O'Hearn RF·1-4411000215.330.419.511
Nick Gonzales 3B·3-5513100115.302.341.337
Spencer Horwitz 1B·1-4401200014.261.376.377
Jake Mangum LF·0-4400000215.273.333.309
Konnor Griffin SS·2-4402100213.230.284.324
Henry Davis C·0-4410000011.161.266.214

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Mitch Keller SP·5.053326093-603.1893
Isaac Mattson RP1.00000004-31.154
Mason Montgomery RP1.000011020-103.9720
Dennis Santana RP1.010011017-100.6917
Gregory Soto RP1.000001014-91.9814
Yohan Ramirez RP1.000002015-102.0415

Milwaukee Brewers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang 2B·1-4401001225.270.405.483
William Contreras C·0-5500000122.263.340.389
Jake Bauers 1B·2-5522000217.250.308.452
Tyler Black 3B·2-5512000218.250.250.375
Garrett Mitchell CF·1-4401100018.246.402.400
Sal Frelick RF·0-0000202012.205.312.269
Greg Jones LF·0-4400000216.133.133.133
David Hamilton 3B·0-220000016.230.356.230
Luis Rengifo 3B0-220000018.167.238.250
Joey Ortiz SS·0-3300001021.180.265.180

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Jacob Misiorowski SP·6.063319091-633.3191
Aaron Ashby RP2.010004021-182.6021
Abner Uribe RP1.00000108-74.358
Angel Zerpa RP0.213111016-106.3916
Grant Anderson RP0.11000004-32.574

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 10th InningContreras grounded out to third.
  2. 10th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  3. 10th InningPitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 4th InningMitchell grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Black to third.2–1
  5. 2nd InningMitchell lined out to shortstop.

Scoring Plays

  1. 4th InningMitchell grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Black to third.2–1
  2. 6th InningHorwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.3–2
  3. 10th InningGonzales singled to left, Reynolds scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones and Yorke scored on error.6–3
  4. 4th InningHorwitz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.1–0
  5. 10th InningReynolds singled to left, Davis scored, Yorke to second.4–3
  6. 4th InningFrelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Black scored.2–2
  7. 6th InningFrelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored.3–3
  8. 4th InningGriffin singled to right, Gonzales scored, Mangum to third.2–0

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