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In The Rafters

DET @ CIN

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:40 PM ET67°F · 7 mph wind · clear⚾ Keider Montero vs Rhett LowderMLB.TVReds.TVTigers.TV
Result readDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers 8 · Cincinnati Reds 3

Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Venue EdgeGreat American Ball ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Detroit Tigers on the back of Detroit Tigers’s margin work and Detroit Tigers’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Detroit Tigers at 84%. Actual: Detroit Tigers by 5.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Cincinnati Reds

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreLowe homered to right center (372 feet).2nd Inning2–1
  2. ScoreBleday homered to center (403 feet).4th Inning2–2
  3. ScoreTorkelson homered to left center (421 feet).7th Inning5–3
  4. 🏃 DoubleMcLain doubled to left, Hayes scored.5th Inning2–3
  5. ScoreTorres homered to right center (388 feet), McGonigle scored.8th Inning8–3
  6. ScoreVierling hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored.7th Inning6–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers2000004208121
Cincinnati Reds010110000371

Detroit Tigers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle SS·1-4411001017.330.423.528
Gleyber Torres 2B·3-5533210122.250.382.330
Colt Keith 3B·0-3300000213.317.349.402
Hao-Yu Lee 3B1-221121016.211.250.421
Riley Greene LF·1-5511000322.301.400.466
Spencer Torkelson 1B·3-4413111118.236.364.472
Kerry Carpenter RF·2-5512200119.237.326.526
Matt Vierling CF·0-2200102020.208.279.358
Wenceel Perez RF·0-220000006.098.140.171
Jahmai Jones RF0-110000119.233.258.467
Javier Baez SS0-110000004.263.288.408
Jake Rogers C·1-4401000219.148.194.222

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Keider Montero SP·5.053325286-564.0086
Brant Hurter RP1.000000013-82.4513
Will Vest RP1.00000108-76.178
Kyle Finnegan RP1.010001016-100.6616
Brenan Hanifee RP1.010000018-120.0018

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·1-4401000114.188.278.260
Matt McLain 2B·1-3301101019.218.347.337
Elly De La Cruz SS·1-4401000316.274.349.558
Sal Stewart 1B·0-4400000113.291.385.602
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·1-4411110021.256.333.605
Spencer Steer LF·0-4400000011.216.293.409
JJ Bleday LF·1-11111110121.0001.0004.000
Dane Myers CF1-2201000012.263.404.342
Jose Trevino C·0-220000017.077.143.077
Will Benson RF0-110000001.162.311.243
Tyler Stephenson C0-110000002.156.286.266
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B·1-4411000113.114.184.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Rhett Lowder SP·5.062217094-563.1894
Brock Burke RP1.010021023-100.6823
Sam Moll RP0.112101110-62.1910
Pierce Johnson RP0.222201114-73.7514
Jose Franco RP2.022222134-194.7034

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningLowe lined out to center.
  2. 2nd InningLowe homered to right center (372 feet).2–1
  3. 9th InningMyers singled to right.

Scoring Plays

  1. 2nd InningLowe homered to right center (372 feet).2–1
  2. 4th InningBleday homered to center (403 feet).2–2
  3. 7th InningTorkelson homered to left center (421 feet).5–3
  4. 5th InningMcLain doubled to left, Hayes scored.2–3
  5. 8th InningTorres homered to right center (388 feet), McGonigle scored.8–3
  6. 7th InningVierling hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored.6–3
  7. 7th InningLee homered to center (402 feet), Torres scored.4–3
  8. 1st InningCarpenter doubled to right, Torres scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to third.2–0

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