MIA @ SF
Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor1:05 PM PT59°F · 14 mph wind · clear⚾ Max Meyer vs Landen RouppMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readSan Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins 3 · San Francisco Giants 6
Final
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
San Francisco Giants16-24-1-1.2 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeOracle ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans San Francisco Giants because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Miami Marlins has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 86%. Actual: San Francisco Giants by 3.
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 86%. Actual: San Francisco Giants by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
San Francisco Giants
- Logan Webb SP · #62
- Robbie Ray SP · #38
- Jung Hoo Lee RF · #51
- Matt Chapman 3B · #26
Injury Report
San Francisco Giants
Daniel Susac10-Day-ILHarrison Bader10-Day-ILErik Miller15-Day-ILJason Foley60-Day-ILLogan Webb15-Day-IL
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 💣 Home RunArraez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lee scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Arraez to second, Chapman out at second.3–1
- 🏃 DoubleDevers doubled to center, Schmitt scored.3–2
- ScorePauley homered to right (362 feet), Edwards scored and Hicks scored.3–0
- ScoreSchmitt homered to left center (406 feet), Lee scored and Chapman scored.3–6
- ScoreGilbert singled to left, Devers scored.3–3
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | 6 | 8 | 0 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .178 | .294 | .262 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .273 | .385 | .409 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .314 | .360 | .486 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .343 | .425 | .467 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .314 | .354 | .523 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | .218 | .267 | .372 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | .229 | .330 | .398 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .217 | .254 | .367 |
| Heriberto Hernandez LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .159 | .284 | .190 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 77-51 | 3.30 | 77 |
| Calvin Faucher RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18-12 | 6.00 | 18 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20-12 | 7.71 | 20 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12-8 | 5.73 | 12 |
San Francisco Giants
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Hoo Lee RF· | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .313 | .358 | .475 |
| Matt Chapman 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | .283 | .356 | .377 |
| Luis Arraez 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .314 | .345 | .371 |
| Casey Schmitt 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .296 | .348 | .543 |
| Rafael Devers 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .216 | .256 | .306 |
| Heliot Ramos LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .265 | .308 | .408 |
| Drew Gilbert CF· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .265 | .306 | .441 |
| Christian Koss 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .083 | .083 | .167 |
| Patrick Bailey C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .147 | .216 | .191 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp SP· | 7.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 103-66 | 2.55 | 103 |
| Erik Miller RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12-7 | 3.48 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningDevers walked.
- 8th InningBailey lined out to shortstop.
- 7th InningPitch 8 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningArraez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lee scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Arraez to second, Chapman out at second.3–1
- 6th InningDevers doubled to center, Schmitt scored.3–2
- 2nd InningPauley homered to right (362 feet), Edwards scored and Hicks scored.3–0
- 7th InningSchmitt homered to left center (406 feet), Lee scored and Chapman scored.3–6
- 6th InningGilbert singled to left, Devers scored.3–3