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In The Rafters

ARI @ MIL

Joshua Silvia
12–18 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Merrill Kelly vs Chad PatrickMLB.TVDBACKS.TVBrewers.TV
Result readMilwaukee Brewers

Arizona Diamondbacks 2 · Milwaukee Brewers 13

Final
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
Venue EdgeAmerican Family FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Milwaukee Brewers gets the model’s nod thanks to Milwaukee Brewers’s margin advantage, with Milwaukee Brewers’s recent run providing the second tip. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 82%. Actual: Milwaukee Brewers by 11.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL

Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Arizona Diamondbacks
JB Jorge Barrosa LF · #1 AT Alek Thomas CF · #5 CC Corbin Carroll RF · #7 NA Nolan Arenado 3B · #28 GP G. Perdomo SS · #2 KM Ketel Marte 2B · #4 JF Jose Fernandez 1B · #11 ZG Zac Gallen P · #23 AC A. Castillo C · #25
Milwaukee Brewers
BL B. Lockridge LF · #20 GM G. Mitchell CF · #5 SF Sal Frelick RF · #10 LR Luis Rengifo 3B · #13 JO Joey Ortiz SS · #3 BT Brice Turang 2B · #2 JB Jake Bauers 1B · #9 JM J. Misiorowski P · #32 WC W. Contreras C · #24

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreHamilton hit a ground rule double, Black scored and Bauers scored, Frelick to third.6th Inning2–13
  2. ScoreMcCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored and Fernandez scored, Arenado to second.5th Inning2–3
  3. ScoreBauers singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored, Black to third.6th Inning2–11
  4. ScoreMitchell singled to left, Frelick scored, Ortiz to second, Hamilton to third.6th Inning2–6
  5. ScoreFrelick homered to right center (396 feet).2nd Inning0–1
  6. ScoreBlack singled to center, Mitchell scored, Turang to second, Contreras to third.6th Inning2–9

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Arizona Diamondbacks000020000232
Milwaukee Brewers01022800—13150

Arizona Diamondbacks

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas 1B·1-2201001014.370.393.716
Ketel Marte 2B·0-330000008.231.291.370
Jorge Barrosa LF0-110000005.203.254.407
Corbin Carroll RF·0-3300000214.278.389.533
Aramis Garcia C0-110000001.333.333.333
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF·0-4400000216.107.167.143
Adrian Del Castillo C·0-2210002118.224.269.347
Jose Fernandez 1B·0-3310001019.329.354.481
Nolan Arenado 3B·0-1100001011.283.316.435
Tim Tawa LF1-220100017.163.245.279
Alek Thomas CF·0-3300000016.205.244.385
James McCann C·1-3301200214.205.222.273

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Merrill Kelly SP·5.0655511104-589.20104
Andrew Hoffmann RP0.188710038-237.7138
Ryan Thompson RP0.20000108-73.978
Taylor Clarke RP1.010000012-73.0712
James McCann C·1.00000006-415.006

Milwaukee Brewers

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Garrett Mitchell CF·1-4411101021.236.396.375
Greg Jones LF0-000000000.133.133.133
William Contreras C·2-4422201015.272.348.388
Brice Turang 2B·2-3322001021.271.403.479
Luis Rengifo 3B0-110000002.171.247.250
Tyler Black 3B·3-5513300015.385.385.462
Jake Bauers 1B·1-4411201021.261.320.467
Brandon Lockridge LF·0-4410001119.254.338.296
Sal Frelick RF·2-2232111019.217.323.313
Blake Perkins LF0-110000001.128.244.205
David Hamilton 3B·2-5512200019.246.358.275
Joey Ortiz SS·2-4412200115.200.278.200

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Chad Patrick SP·5.012255098-602.5798
Shane Drohan RP1.000001010-94.7010
Jake Woodford RP3.020002035-264.6135

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 7th InningContreras fouled out to first.
  2. 6th InningOrtiz struck out swinging.
  3. 6th InningTurang walked, Contreras to second, Mitchell to third.
  4. 4th InningOrtiz caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.
  5. 1st InningContreras walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningHamilton hit a ground rule double, Black scored and Bauers scored, Frelick to third.2–13
  2. 5th InningMcCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored and Fernandez scored, Arenado to second.2–3
  3. 6th InningBauers singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored, Black to third.2–11
  4. 6th InningMitchell singled to left, Frelick scored, Ortiz to second, Hamilton to third.2–6
  5. 2nd InningFrelick homered to right center (396 feet).0–1
  6. 6th InningBlack singled to center, Mitchell scored, Turang to second, Contreras to third.2–9
  7. 6th InningContreras singled to left, Hamilton scored and Ortiz scored, Mitchell to second.2–8
  8. 5th InningBlack singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored.2–5
  9. 4th InningOrtiz singled to center, Lockridge scored and Frelick scored.0–3

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