DET @ ATL
Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor7:15 PM ET⚾ Casey Mize vs Martin PerezMLB.TVBravesVisionTigers.TV
Result readAtlanta Braves
Detroit Tigers 2 · Atlanta Braves 5
Final
Detroit Tigers19-22+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.1) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 40%
Atlanta Braves28-13+2.1 net/g (SOS-adj +1.9) · expected win rate 71% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeTruist ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Atlanta Braves is the model’s call — Atlanta Braves on the margin numbers, Atlanta Braves on the form numbers. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 3.
Pre-game pick: Atlanta Braves at 80%. Actual: Atlanta Braves by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Detroit Tigers
- Framber Valdez SP · #59
- Jack Flaherty SP · #9
- Riley Greene LF · #31
- Kevin McGonigle SS · #7
Atlanta Braves
- Bryce Elder SP · #55
- Grant Holmes SP · #66
- Austin Riley 3B · #27
- Drake Baldwin C · #30
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Sean MurphyDay-To-DayDylan Dodd15-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr.10-Day-ILBlake BurkhalterDay-To-DayEli White7-day il
Detroit Tigers
Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionWill Vest15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILCasey Mize15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreOlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- ScoreYastrzemski singled to right, Dubón scored.0–3
- ScorePérez homered to center (415 feet), Keith scored.2–5
- 🏃 DoubleAcuña Jr. doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.0–1
- ScoreAlbies homered to left (378 feet), Olson scored.0–5
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Detroit Tigers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .212 | .235 | .424 |
| Kerry Carpenter RF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .231 | .319 | .513 |
| Gleyber Torres 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25 | .243 | .383 | .320 |
| Kevin McGonigle SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | .327 | .417 | .518 |
| Matt Vierling CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .193 | .262 | .333 |
| Dillon Dingler C· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | .253 | .337 | .483 |
| Riley Greene LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | .292 | .395 | .453 |
| Spencer Torkelson 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .228 | .360 | .457 |
| Hao-Yu Lee 3B· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .238 | .273 | .476 |
| Colt Keith 3B | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .321 | .352 | .405 |
| Javier Baez SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .256 | .280 | .397 |
| Wenceel Perez RF | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .116 | .156 | .256 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize SP· | 2.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 34-25 | 2.90 | 34 |
| Brant Hurter RP | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30-20 | 1.98 | 30 |
| Burch Smith RP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 33-22 | 1.69 | 33 |
| Tyler Holton RP | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20-14 | 5.54 | 20 |
Atlanta Braves
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. RF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .248 | .360 | .381 |
| Drake Baldwin C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .301 | .377 | .504 |
| Matt Olson 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .299 | .378 | .615 |
| Ozzie Albies 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | .316 | .359 | .513 |
| Michael Harris II CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .320 | .356 | .546 |
| Austin Riley 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .202 | .289 | .333 |
| Dominic Smith 1B· | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .344 | .368 | .563 |
| Kyle Farmer 3B | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .333 | .300 | .444 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .282 | .327 | .437 |
| Mike Yastrzemski LF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .205 | .278 | .273 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez SP· | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 91-53 | 2.22 | 91 |
| Didier Fuentes SP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22-12 | 5.00 | 22 |
| Tyler Kinley RP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23-13 | 1.38 | 23 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12-9 | 4.66 | 12 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 3rd InningMcGonigle struck out swinging.
- 2nd InningDingler walked.
- 3rd InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
- 2nd InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningOlson hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- 7th InningYastrzemski singled to right, Dubón scored.0–3
- 9th InningPérez homered to center (415 feet), Keith scored.2–5
- 3rd InningAcuña Jr. doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.0–1
- 8th InningAlbies homered to left (378 feet), Olson scored.0–5