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Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Michael Wacha vs Luis SeverinoMLB.TVRoyals.TV
Result readAthletics

Kansas City Royals 2 · Athletics 5

Final
Kansas City Royals19-22-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 70%
Athletics21-19-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.2) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 50%
Venue EdgeSutter Health ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Athletics: Athletics’s scoring margin profile and Kansas City Royals’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 58%. Actual: Athletics by 3.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Royals

Athletics

Roster watch list pending.

Injury Report

Athletics

Jacob WilsonDay-To-DayMax Muncy10-Day-ILDenzel Clarke10-Day-ILGunnar Hoglund60-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreMassey hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.9th Inning2–5
  2. ScorePerez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Jensen out at second.1st Inning1–0
  3. ScoreButler homered to right center (404 feet), Wilson scored and McNeil scored.4th Inning1–4
  4. 🏃 DoubleMcNeil doubled to right, Wilson scored.2nd Inning1–1
  5. 🏃 DoubleKurtz doubled to center, Hernaiz scored.6th Inning1–5

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals100000001261
Athletics010301005110

Kansas City Royals

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia 3B·0-4400000115.259.331.389
Bobby Witt Jr. SS·2-4422000116.297.366.441
Carter Jensen C·1-3301001120.267.354.500
Salvador Perez C·1-4401100013.198.230.353
Michael Massey 2B·0-3300100119.224.245.388
Isaac Collins LF·0-3300001120.213.337.307
Jac Caglianone RF·0-3300001319.241.327.391
Lane Thomas CF·1-2201001113.246.386.316
Kyle Isbel CF·1-3301000010.292.354.458

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Michael Wacha SP·5.0844451105-643.13105
Luinder Avila RP1.021102020-129.0020
Alex Lange RP1.000010015-87.1115
Mason Black RP1.010000020-130.0020

Athletics

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz 1B·2-4402101223.243.422.427
Shea Langeliers C·1-4401001021.314.371.562
Carlos Cortes RF·2-3302001119.400.473.692
Brent Rooker RF·0-4400000114.111.206.222
Jacob Wilson SS·2-3322001020.285.294.390
Jeff McNeil 2B·2-3312101014.289.369.389
Zack Gelof CF·0-3300000116.226.250.355
Lawrence Butler RF·1-4411310119.187.260.308
Darell Hernaiz 3B·1-4411000114.200.300.286

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Luis Severino SP·7.0411280103-714.46103
Joel Kuhnel RP1.221110031-172.7031
Mark Leiter Jr. RP0.100011011-56.2311

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningMassey hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.2–5
  2. 9th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  3. 9th InningWitt Jr. singled to right.
  4. 8th InningKurtz reached on infield single to catcher.

Scoring Plays

  1. 9th InningMassey hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.2–5
  2. 1st InningPerez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Witt Jr. scored, Jensen out at second.1–0
  3. 4th InningButler homered to right center (404 feet), Wilson scored and McNeil scored.1–4
  4. 2nd InningMcNeil doubled to right, Wilson scored.1–1
  5. 6th InningKurtz doubled to center, Hernaiz scored.1–5

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