STL @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM ET50°F · 7 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Andre Pallante vs Bubba ChandlerMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 5 · Pittsburgh Pirates 4
Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Pick goes to St. Louis Cardinals on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 64%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 64%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreHerrera reached on infield single to shortstop, Scott II scored.4–1
- ScoreYorke singled to center, Bart scored and Griffin scored, Cruz to third.5–3
- 🏃 DoubleWetherholt doubled to left, Urías scored.1–0
- ScoreCruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gonzales scored, Mangum out at second, Cook to third.5–4
- ScoreBurleson homered to left center (411 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- ScoreHorwitz homered to center (397 feet).3–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | .248 | .370 | .451 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .248 | .420 | .429 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .263 | .346 | .439 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .279 | .352 | .532 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .214 | .286 | .357 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | .255 | .343 | .362 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | .238 | .276 | .438 |
| Ramon Urias 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | .170 | .286 | .340 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | .184 | .241 | .237 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante SP· | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 91-58 | 3.73 | 91 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22-11 | 9.00 | 22 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17-8 | 3.77 | 17 |
| George Soriano RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29-18 | 4.05 | 29 |
| Riley O'Brien RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11-8 | 1.17 | 11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | .256 | .318 | .521 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .245 | .336 | .520 |
| Nick Yorke 3B | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .224 | .312 | .313 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25 | .236 | .380 | .355 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .317 | .402 | .500 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .162 | .224 | .242 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .324 | .361 | .373 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .259 | .367 | .395 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .273 | .273 | .273 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .230 | .292 | .345 |
| Joey Bart C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .195 | .244 | .293 |
| Jake Mangum LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .269 | .319 | .299 |
| Henry Davis C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .161 | .257 | .210 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler SP· | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 85-53 | 4.97 | 85 |
| Evan Sisk RP | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27-13 | 2.61 | 27 |
| Chris Devenski RP | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-10 | 13.50 | 14 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-7 | 3.07 | 9 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16-13 | 1.93 | 16 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningGonzales singled to left.
- 7th InningGriffin walked.
- 9th InningScott II struck out looking.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 7th InningCruz walked, Bart to second.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 7th InningHerrera reached on infield single to shortstop, Scott II scored.4–1
- 7th InningYorke singled to center, Bart scored and Griffin scored, Cruz to third.5–3
- 3rd InningWetherholt doubled to left, Urías scored.1–0
- 8th InningCruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gonzales scored, Mangum out at second, Cook to third.5–4
- 5th InningBurleson homered to left center (411 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- 5th InningHorwitz homered to center (397 feet).3–1
- 7th InningWalker singled to left, Herrera scored, Walker to second.5–1