STL @ PIT
PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Day GameOutdoor12:35 PM ET52°F · 8 mph wind · drizzle⚾ Hunter Dobbins vs Paul SkenesMLB.TVCardinals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals 10 · Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Final
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
St. Louis Cardinals is the model’s call — Pittsburgh Pirates on the margin numbers, Pittsburgh Pirates on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 71%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 5.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 71%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 5.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreBurleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored.5–1
- 🏃 DoubleReynolds doubled to left, Cruz scored and Mangum scored.5–3
- ScoreBurleson singled to right, Church scored and Scott II scored, Herrera to third.9–4
- ScoreLowe homered to right (416 feet).5–4
- ScoreHorwitz walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.4–1
- ScoreGorman singled to right, Burleson scored.4–0
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | .256 | .378 | .479 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | .239 | .413 | .413 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | .277 | .356 | .445 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .284 | .354 | .552 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | .223 | .291 | .359 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | .253 | .336 | .354 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .235 | .272 | .435 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .262 | .310 | .431 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .179 | .244 | .231 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins SP· | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 79-41 | 6.23 | 79 |
| Justin Bruihl RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18-13 | 5.63 | 18 |
| Gordon Graceffo RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24-16 | 1.04 | 24 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21-13 | 4.20 | 21 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15-10 | 8.31 | 15 |
| Matt Svanson RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17-10 | 10.26 | 17 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | .256 | .321 | .512 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | .252 | .339 | .551 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | .246 | .387 | .377 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .306 | .394 | .481 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | .317 | .366 | .365 |
| Spencer Horwitz 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | .250 | .363 | .381 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .231 | .290 | .341 |
| Jake Mangum LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .271 | .329 | .300 |
| Henry Davis C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .154 | .247 | .200 |
| Nick Yorke 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .221 | .308 | .309 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 102-68 | 2.91 | 102 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-13 | 1.83 | 16 |
| Mason Montgomery RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12-5 | 3.38 | 12 |
| Isaac Mattson RP | 0.2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31-17 | 3.78 | 31 |
| Chris Devenski RP | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19-15 | 4.50 | 19 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningDavis grounded out to second.
- 5th InningLowe flied out to center, Cruz to second, Mangum to third.
- 7th InningPitch 9 : Ball In Play
- 5th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 5th InningBurleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored.5–1
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningBurleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored.5–1
- 5th InningReynolds doubled to left, Cruz scored and Mangum scored.5–3
- 8th InningBurleson singled to right, Church scored and Scott II scored, Herrera to third.9–4
- 7th InningLowe homered to right (416 feet).5–4
- 4th InningHorwitz walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.4–1
- 3rd InningGorman singled to right, Burleson scored.4–0
- 1st InningWalker homered to left (383 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- 1st InningWetherholt homered to right (391 feet).1–0
- 9th InningLowe doubled to right, Cruz scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker.10–5
- 8th InningWalker singled to left, Herrera scored, Burleson to second.10–4
- 8th InningChurch doubled to center, Gorman scored and Winn scored.7–4