PHI @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor7:10 PM ET⚾ Zack Wheeler vs Eury PerezMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readPhiladelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 6 · Miami Marlins 5
Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Philadelphia Phillies is the model’s call — Miami Marlins on the margin numbers, Philadelphia Phillies on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.
Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 51%. Actual: Philadelphia Phillies by 1.
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 51%. Actual: Philadelphia Phillies by 1.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreHicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Stowers scored.6–3
- ScoreStott homered to right center (386 feet), Marsh scored and Sosa scored.6–1
- ScoreRamírez singled to center, Lopez scored.6–4
- ScoreLopez reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Stowers to second.6–2
- ScoreLopez singled to right, Sanoja scored.6–5
- 🏃 DoubleEdwards doubled to right, Lopez scored.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | .216 | .368 | .569 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 29 | .263 | .358 | .492 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .241 | .315 | .379 |
| Brandon Marsh LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | .304 | .330 | .480 |
| Dylan Moore CF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .000 | .200 | .000 |
| Edmundo Sosa 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .283 | .313 | .413 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .211 | .268 | .311 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .164 | .228 | .218 |
| Justin Crawford CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .269 | .340 | .376 |
| Rafael Marchan C· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | .078 | .130 | .137 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler SP· | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 94-60 | 2.45 | 94 |
| Orion Kerkering RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13-8 | 2.31 | 13 |
| Jonathan Bowlan RP | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31-18 | 8.31 | 31 |
| Jose Alvarado RP | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-7 | 6.75 | 10 |
| Brad Keller RP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26-12 | 4.61 | 26 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | .179 | .297 | .260 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | .205 | .326 | .282 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | .333 | .371 | .504 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .331 | .423 | .449 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | .309 | .361 | .564 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | .234 | .314 | .355 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .200 | .242 | .333 |
| Connor Norby 1B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .234 | .336 | .394 |
| Christopher Morel LF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | .167 | .375 | .167 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | .308 | .375 | .354 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 96-68 | 4.46 | 96 |
| Cade Gibson RP | 1.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50-31 | 21.60 | 50 |
| Lake Bachar RP | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 28-20 | 2.81 | 28 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningStowers walked, Marsee to second.
- 9th InningEdwards lined out to center.
- 9th InningHarper grounded out to first.
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningHicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Stowers scored.6–3
- 7th InningStott homered to right center (386 feet), Marsh scored and Sosa scored.6–1
- 8th InningRamírez singled to center, Lopez scored.6–4
- 8th InningLopez reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Stowers to second.6–2
- 9th InningLopez singled to right, Sanoja scored.6–5
- 1st InningEdwards doubled to right, Lopez scored.0–1
- 7th InningSosa singled to right, Harper scored, Marsh to third.3–1
- 4th InningBohm singled to center, Marsh scored, Stott to third.1–1
- 4th InningCrawford doubled to right, Stott scored, Bohm to third.2–1