PHI @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Afternoon GameIndoor4:10 PM ET⚾ Andrew Painter vs Max MeyerMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readMiami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies 0 · Miami Marlins 4
Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
The model leans Miami Marlins because Miami Marlins owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies has the recent-form edge. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 69%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 4.
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 69%. Actual: Miami Marlins by 4.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cristopher Sanchez SP · #61
- Aaron Nola SP · #27
- Tim Mayza RP · #37
- Adolis Garcia RF · #53
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Philadelphia Phillies
Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreRamírez walked, Stowers scored, Edwards to second, Lopez to third.0–1
- ScoreNorby walked, Lopez scored, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.0–2
- ScoreEdwards homered to right center (392 feet).0–3
- ScoreLopez reached on infield single to shortstop, Ruiz scored, Marsee to third.0–4
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Philadelphia Phillies
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner SS· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .244 | .308 | .374 |
| Kyle Schwarber LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .210 | .361 | .555 |
| Bryce Harper 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .256 | .350 | .479 |
| Adolis Garcia RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .235 | .308 | .370 |
| Bryson Stott 2B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .204 | .260 | .301 |
| Alec Bohm 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | .161 | .230 | .214 |
| J.T. Realmuto C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .246 | .328 | .333 |
| Garrett Stubbs C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .273 | .308 | .273 |
| Edmundo Sosa 2B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .277 | .306 | .404 |
| Felix Reyes LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .125 | .125 | .250 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter SP· | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 99-61 | 5.28 | 99 |
| Tanner Banks RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20-13 | 6.57 | 20 |
| Trevor Richards RP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24-14 | 2.08 | 24 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | .175 | .300 | .254 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | .205 | .314 | .273 |
| Otto Lopez SS· | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .336 | .372 | .500 |
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .336 | .426 | .475 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | .309 | .366 | .557 |
| Agustin Ramirez C· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | .239 | .328 | .358 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .247 | .351 | .412 |
| Graham Pauley 3B· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .188 | .233 | .319 |
| Christopher Morel LF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .143 | .333 | .143 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .303 | .370 | .348 |
| Esteury Ruiz CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | .300 | .300 | .700 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer SP· | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 83-55 | 2.68 | 83 |
| Anthony Bender RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18-14 | 4.85 | 18 |
| Andrew Nardi RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10-8 | 6.00 | 10 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 8th InningStott struck out looking.
- 4th InningStowers struck out swinging.
- 8th InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking
- 4th InningPitch 9 : Strike 3 Swinging
Scoring Plays
- 3rd InningRamírez walked, Stowers scored, Edwards to second, Lopez to third.0–1
- 3rd InningNorby walked, Lopez scored, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.0–2
- 5th InningEdwards homered to right center (392 feet).0–3
- 6th InningLopez reached on infield single to shortstop, Ruiz scored, Marsee to third.0–4