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In The Rafters

CIN @ PIT

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Day GameOutdoor1:35 PM ET57°F · 11 mph wind · overcast⚾ Chase Burns vs Braxton AshcraftMLB.TVReds.TV
Result readPittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds 0 · Pittsburgh Pirates 1

Final
Cincinnati Reds22-19-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.8) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 20%
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgePNC ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Pick goes to Pittsburgh Pirates on the back of Pittsburgh Pirates’s margin work and Pittsburgh Pirates’s last-ten momentum. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 82%. Actual: Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day

Cincinnati Reds

Josh StaumontDay-To-DayCaleb Ferguson15-Day-ILRhett LowderOutEugenio Suarez10-Day-ILConnor BurnsDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Cincinnati Reds
SS Spencer Steer LF · #7 TF TJ Friedl CF · #29 WB Will Benson RF · #30 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · #3 EC E. Cruz SS · #44 MM Matt McLain 2B · #9 SS Sal Stewart 1B · #27 AA Andrew Abbott P · #41 TS T. Stephenson C · #37
Pittsburgh Pirates
BR Bryan Reynolds LF · #10 OC Oneil Cruz CF · #15 RO Ryan O'Hearn RF · #29 NG Nick Gonzales 3B · #3 KG Konnor Griffin SS · #6 BL Brandon Lowe 2B · #5 SH S. Horwitz 1B · #2 MK Mitch Keller P · #23 HD Henry Davis C · #32

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreCruz singled to center, Griffin scored, Mangum to second.8th Inning0–1

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Cincinnati Reds000000000040
Pittsburgh Pirates00000001—150

Cincinnati Reds

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
TJ Friedl CF·1-4401000111.203.282.305
JJ Bleday LF·1-220100108.333.500.800
Dane Myers CF0-110000016.279.415.349
Elly De La Cruz SS·0-3300001110.271.349.541
Sal Stewart 1B·0-4400000011.252.340.512
Nathaniel Lowe 1B·0-3300000212.274.348.597
Spencer Steer LF·1-330100018.245.325.443
Will Benson RF·0-3300000212.184.298.388
Jose Trevino C·1-330100007.158.200.211
Matt McLain 2B·0-3300000014.195.308.293

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Chase Burns SP·7.030017094-592.2094
Tony Santillan RP1.021120021-92.4521

Pittsburgh Pirates

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Oneil Cruz CF·2-4402100017.264.322.500
Brandon Lowe 2B·0-3300001117.243.356.522
Bryan Reynolds LF·0-3300001216.258.404.427
Henry Davis C0-000000000.162.253.284
Ryan O'Hearn RF·0-3300000216.308.393.475
Nick Gonzales 3B·0-330000018.328.381.371
Marcell Ozuna DH·1-3301000013.189.256.297
Billy Cook RF0-000000000.333.333.333
Spencer Horwitz 1B·0-330000007.242.362.368
Konnor Griffin SS·1-3311000110.262.325.398
Joey Bart C·1-220100005.209.255.302
Jake Mangum LF0-000000106.271.346.300

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Braxton Ashcraft SP·7.240026082-563.0282
Gregory Soto RP1.100002017-111.5917

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 9th InningMyers struck out swinging.
  2. 1st InningLowe struck out swinging.
  3. 9th InningPitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
  4. 1st InningPitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging
  5. 9th InningPitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
  6. 8th InningFriedl struck out swinging.

Scoring Plays

  1. 8th InningCruz singled to center, Griffin scored, Mangum to second.0–1

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