MIL @ STL
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameOutdoor6:45 PM CT66°F · 3 mph wind · mostly clear⚾ Chad Patrick vs Kyle LeahyMLB.TVBrewers.TVCardinals.TV
Result readSt. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers 3 · St. Louis Cardinals 6
Final
Milwaukee Brewers22-16-2+1.4 net/g (SOS-adj +1.4) · expected win rate 64% · last 10: 75%
St. Louis Cardinals23-17-1+0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.3) · expected win rate 51% · last 10: 55%
Venue EdgeBusch StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on St. Louis Cardinals: Milwaukee Brewers’s scoring margin profile and Milwaukee Brewers’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 88%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 3.
Pre-game pick: Milwaukee Brewers at 88%. Actual: St. Louis Cardinals by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jacob Misiorowski SP · #32
- Kyle Harrison SP · #52
- Aaron Ashby RP · #26
- DL Hall RP · #37
St. Louis Cardinals
- Matthew Liberatore SP · #32
- Andre Pallante SP · #53
- Ivan Herrera C · #48
- JJ Wetherholt 2B · #26
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Pushard15-Day-ILRamon Urias10-Day-ILLars Nootbaar60-Day-ILIxan HendersonDay-To-DayVictor SantosDay-To-Day
Milwaukee Brewers
J.B. BukauskasDay-To-DayBrandon Woodruff15-Day-ILChristian Yelich10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge10-Day-ILRob Zastryzny60-Day-IL
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- ScoreWetherholt singled to center, Scott II scored.1–6
- ScoreRengifo singled to left, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.1–4
- 💣 Home RunWinn singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman thrown out at third.1–5
- ScoreTurang homered to center (414 feet), Chourio scored.3–6
- 🏃 DoubleHerrera doubled to center, Church scored, Wetherholt scored and Pagés scored.0–4
- ScoreWetherholt singled to center, Winn scored, Scott II to third.0–1
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | 6 | 11 | 0 |
Milwaukee Brewers
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell CF· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | .219 | .364 | .333 |
| Jackson Chourio CF· | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.500 |
| Brice Turang 2B· | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .304 | .434 | .522 |
| William Contreras C· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .295 | .364 | .419 |
| Jake Bauers 1B· | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .248 | .325 | .434 |
| Gary Sanchez C | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .211 | .371 | .479 |
| Tyler Black 3B | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .409 | .435 | .591 |
| Andrew Vaughn 1B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | .125 | .222 | .125 |
| Sal Frelick RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | .212 | .311 | .317 |
| Luis Rengifo 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | .188 | .252 | .267 |
| David Hamilton 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | .235 | .337 | .259 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Patrick SP· | 3.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 64-38 | 3.45 | 64 |
| DL Hall RP | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24-19 | 1.69 | 24 |
| Shane Drohan RP | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23-14 | 4.15 | 23 |
| Grant Anderson RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9-6 | 3.18 | 9 |
| Jake Woodford RP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25-16 | 4.41 | 25 |
St. Louis Cardinals
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt 2B· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | .246 | .360 | .440 |
| Ivan Herrera C· | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | .248 | .410 | .416 |
| Alec Burleson 1B· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | .269 | .349 | .448 |
| Jordan Walker RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | .308 | .377 | .585 |
| Nolan Gorman 3B· | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .224 | .285 | .379 |
| Masyn Winn SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | .274 | .357 | .372 |
| Nathan Church LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .248 | .278 | .436 |
| Pedro Pages C· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | .237 | .289 | .395 |
| Victor Scott II CF· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .184 | .250 | .241 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy SP· | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 94-56 | 4.93 | 94 |
| George Soriano RP | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18-9 | 3.52 | 18 |
| JoJo Romero RP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16-8 | 3.71 | 16 |
| Ryne Stanek RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-6 | 7.20 | 7 |
| Gordon Graceffo RP | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11-7 | 1.93 | 11 |
| Riley O'Brien RP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 2.12 | 3 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 7th InningSánchez walked.
- 7th InningWalker walked.
- 7th InningPitch 7 : Ball 4
Scoring Plays
- 8th InningWetherholt singled to center, Scott II scored.1–6
- 6th InningRengifo singled to left, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.1–4
- 7th InningWinn singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman thrown out at third.1–5
- 9th InningTurang homered to center (414 feet), Chourio scored.3–6
- 4th InningHerrera doubled to center, Church scored, Wetherholt scored and Pagés scored.0–4
- 2nd InningWetherholt singled to center, Winn scored, Scott II to third.0–1