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In The Rafters

PHI @ MIA

Joshua Silvia
11–17 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Aaron Nola vs Janson JunkMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies 1 · Miami Marlins 0

Final
Philadelphia Phillies19-22-1-0.8 net/g (SOS-adj -0.7) · expected win rate 42% · last 10: 70%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Philadelphia Phillies: Miami Marlins’s scoring margin profile and Philadelphia Phillies’s recent stretch. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Philadelphia Phillies at 51%. Actual: Philadelphia Phillies by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut

Philadelphia Phillies

Christian McGowanDay-To-DayKyle Backhus15-Day-ILKeaton AnthonyDay-To-DayRene PintoDay-To-DayZach Pop15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Philadelphia Phillies
KS Kyle Schwarber LF · #12 JC J. Crawford CF · #2 AG Adolis Garcia RF · #53 AB Alec Bohm 3B · #28 TT Trea Turner SS · #7 BS Bryson Stott 2B · #5 BH Bryce Harper 1B · #3 CS C. Sanchez P · #61 RM Rafael Marchan C · #13
Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreHarper homered to right center (393 feet).3rd Inning1–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Philadelphia Phillies001000000171
Miami Marlins000000000071

Philadelphia Phillies

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Trea Turner SS·0-4400000217.236.296.364
Kyle Schwarber LF·0-4400000116.213.359.535
Bryce Harper 1B·3-4413110011.271.362.519
Adolis Garcia RF·2-4402000118.244.314.374
Brandon Marsh LF·1-440100009.309.339.482
Bryson Stott 2B·0-4400000121.198.250.317
Alec Bohm 3B·0-4400000015.157.222.207
Garrett Stubbs C·1-4401000117.267.294.267
Justin Crawford CF·0-3300000222.260.327.360

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Aaron Nola SP·6.050005094-615.0694
Tanner Banks RP1.000001018-116.0818
Jose Alvarado RP1.00000108-66.178
Brad Keller RP1.020000010-74.3010

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Jakob Marsee CF·2-4402000220.185.305.262
Kyle Stowers LF·2-440200009.240.333.300
Javier Sanoja 3B0-000000000.304.368.362
Otto Lopez SS·1-4401000022.338.372.493
Xavier Edwards 2B·1-4401000015.333.419.465
Liam Hicks C·0-4400000116.297.353.535
Christopher Morel LF·1-3301000210.286.375.286
Joe Mack C·0-3300000115.000.000.000
Owen Caissie RF·0-220000019.202.243.330
Esteury Ruiz CF0-110000002.267.267.733
Graham Pauley 3B·0-220000009.181.224.306
Connor Norby 1B0-110000003.235.336.392

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Janson Junk SP·5.151106192-642.8292
John King RP0.200000010-70.5710
Calvin Faucher RP1.010001015-124.1515
Lake Bachar RP2.010001029-182.5029

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 6th InningLopez grounded out to third.
  2. 4th InningEdwards flied out to center.
  3. 2nd InningCrawford grounded out to second.
  4. 6th InningPitch 7 : Ball In Play
  5. 6th InningStott lined out to right.

Scoring Plays

  1. 3rd InningHarper homered to right center (393 feet).1–0

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