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In The Rafters

BAL @ MIA

Joshua Silvia
12–19 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Chris Bassitt vs Sandy AlcantaraMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles 9 · Miami Marlins 7

Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Baltimore Orioles is the model’s call — Miami Marlins on the margin numbers, Miami Marlins on the form numbers. Lineup vs. starter L/R splits matter more than season ERAs in a one-game sample.

Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 79%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 2.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Miami Marlins

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut

Baltimore Orioles

Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Baltimore Orioles
TW Taylor Ward LF · #3 LT Leody Taveras CF · #30 CC Colton Cowser RF · #17 CM Coby Mayo 3B · #16 GH G. Henderson SS · #2 JJ J. Jackson 2B · #82 PA Pete Alonso 1B · #25 CB Chris Bassitt P · #40 SB Samuel Basallo C · #29
Miami Marlins
KS Kyle Stowers LF · #28 JM Jakob Marsee CF · #87 OC Owen Caissie RF · #17 GP Graham Pauley 3B · #21 OL Otto Lopez SS · #6 XE Xavier Edwards 2B · #9 CN Connor Norby 1B · #1 EP Eury Perez P · #39 LH Liam Hicks C · #34

Box Score

Highlights

  1. ScoreCowser grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Basallo scored.5th Inning7–4
  2. 🏃 TripleBasallo tripled to right, Alonso scored.5th Inning6–4
  3. ScoreRutschman singled to left, Ward scored, Alonso to second.9th Inning8–7
  4. ScoreHicks homered to right (431 feet).7th Inning7–5
  5. 🏃 DoubleAlonso doubled to left, Beavers scored on error and Ward scored, Alonso safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Stowers.1st Inning2–0
  6. ScoreBasallo singled to right, Ward scored and Alonso scored.3rd Inning5–3

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Baltimore Orioles3020200029101
Miami Marlins121000210792

Baltimore Orioles

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Gunnar Henderson SS·1-5501000112.208.270.443
Taylor Ward LF·1-3331002126.289.429.414
Dylan Beavers RF·0-3310001023.211.294.311
Tyler O'Neill RF0-110000003.200.345.267
Pete Alonso 1B·2-3342202121.226.335.436
Samuel Basallo C·3-4413400117.255.324.469
Adley Rutschman C1-110110004.299.341.532
Leody Taveras CF·1-5501100115.275.383.425
Colton Cowser RF·0-5500100326.179.282.209
Coby Mayo 3B·0-4400000117.157.224.292
Jeremiah Jackson 2B0-000000000.259.276.446
Blaze Alexander 3B·1-4401000110.222.276.247

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Chris Bassitt SP·4.064433076-425.9176
Keegan Akin RP1.00000108-613.508
Anthony Nunez RP1.122201220-134.8620
Grant Wolfram RP0.20000208-64.388
Andrew Kittredge RP0.211011020-1015.7520
Rico Garcia RP1.100012019-120.5619

Miami Marlins

batting

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards 2B·1-3311002024.333.425.462
Liam Hicks C·4-5514310119.321.372.575
Otto Lopez SS·1-5511110014.333.367.504
Kyle Stowers LF·0-4410001215.222.323.278
Jakob Marsee CF·0-5500000319.178.296.252
Connor Norby 1B·1-3301000214.238.341.390
Joe Mack C·2-4402100115.286.286.286
Esteury Ruiz CF0-001000000.267.267.733
Javier Sanoja 3B0-000000000.304.368.362
Owen Caissie RF·0-2210001116.198.252.323
Graham Pauley 3B·0-3310001015.173.225.293

pitching

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Sandy Alcantara SP·4.1877350106-724.01106
Anthony Bender RP0.20000006-44.616
Michael Petersen RP1.000002017-123.3817
Josh Ekness RP1.000002015-100.0015
William Kempner RP1.00000108-60.008
Andrew Nardi RP1.022220022-96.9222

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 1st InningBeavers walked, Ward to second.
  2. 1st InningPitch 12 : Ball 4
  3. 1st InningPitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul
  4. 1st InningPitch 10 : Ball 3
  5. 8th InningEdwards walked.

Scoring Plays

  1. 5th InningCowser grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Basallo scored.7–4
  2. 5th InningBasallo tripled to right, Alonso scored.6–4
  3. 9th InningRutschman singled to left, Ward scored, Alonso to second.8–7
  4. 7th InningHicks homered to right (431 feet).7–5
  5. 1st InningAlonso doubled to left, Beavers scored on error and Ward scored, Alonso safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Stowers.2–0
  6. 3rd InningBasallo singled to right, Ward scored and Alonso scored.5–3
  7. 2nd InningHicks singled to center, Caissie scored and Pauley scored, Edwards to third.3–3
  8. 8th InningRuiz scored on throwing error by catcher Basallo, Caissie stole second.7–7
  9. 7th InningLopez homered to center (415 feet).7–6
  10. 9th InningTaveras singled to right, Alonso scored, Rutschman to second.9–7
  11. 8th InningRuiz scored on throwing error by catcher Basallo, Caissie stole second.7–7
  12. 3rd InningMack singled to left, Stowers scored, Norby to second.5–4
  13. 1st InningEdwards scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–1
  14. 1st InningEdwards scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Hicks to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–1
  15. 1st InningBasallo doubled to center, Alonso scored.3–0

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