PIT @ ARI
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM PT⚾ Bubba Chandler vs Eduardo RodriguezMLB.TVDBACKS.TV
Result readArizona Diamondbacks
Pittsburgh Pirates 0 · Arizona Diamondbacks 9
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates22-19+0.8 net/g (SOS-adj +0.6) · expected win rate 57% · last 10: 60%
Arizona Diamondbacks19-20-0.6 net/g (SOS-adj -0.3) · expected win rate 44% · last 10: 30%
Venue EdgeChase FieldHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Two reasons the projection lands on Arizona Diamondbacks: Pittsburgh Pirates’s scoring margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 95%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 9.
Pre-game pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at 95%. Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks by 9.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Mitch Keller SP · #23
- Paul Skenes SP · #30
- Mason Montgomery RP · #46
- Bryan Reynolds LF · #10
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Zac Gallen SP · #23
- Eduardo Rodriguez SP · #57
- Ketel Marte 2B · #4
- Corbin Carroll RF · #7
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Santana10-Day-ILPavin Smith60-Day-ILCristian Mena60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar60-Day-ILA.J. Puk60-Day-IL
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayJake Mangum10-Day-ILChris Devenski15-Day-ILJared Jones60-Day-ILOddanier MosquedaDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleVargas doubled to center, Carroll scored.0–2
- ScoreMarte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Thomas scored, Perdomo third.0–6
- ScoreCarroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to second.0–7
- ScoreDel Castillo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.0–1
- 🏃 DoubleMoreno doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Arenado to third.0–3
- ScoreDel Castillo singled to right, Marte scored.0–9
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | — | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz CF· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .257 | .314 | .486 |
| Nick Gonzales 3B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | .317 | .369 | .358 |
| Bryan Reynolds LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .252 | .400 | .417 |
| Ryan O'Hearn RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .301 | .385 | .463 |
| Billy Cook RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .308 | .308 | .308 |
| Marcell Ozuna DH· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | .184 | .256 | .289 |
| Konnor Griffin SS· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .267 | .333 | .410 |
| Jake Mangum LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .260 | .333 | .288 |
| Joey Bart C· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .196 | .240 | .283 |
| Jared Triolo SS· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .222 | .300 | .296 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler SP· | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 92-58 | 4.76 | 92 |
| Yohan Ramirez RP | 0.1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29-15 | 4.09 | 29 |
| Evan Sisk RP | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25-18 | 2.08 | 25 |
| Dennis Santana RP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-12 | 4.02 | 15 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geraldo Perdomo SS· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .245 | .354 | .406 |
| Ketel Marte 2B· | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .221 | .277 | .374 |
| Corbin Carroll RF· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | .265 | .366 | .504 |
| Adrian Del Castillo C· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | .224 | .254 | .403 |
| Ildemaro Vargas 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | .374 | .396 | .645 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF· | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .340 | .295 |
| Nolan Arenado 3B· | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | .273 | .325 | .436 |
| Gabriel Moreno C· | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | .264 | .310 | .434 |
| Alek Thomas CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .189 | .232 | .356 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez SP· | 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 103-65 | 2.50 | 103 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-11 | 3.45 | 15 |
| Brandyn Garcia RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11-9 | 0.00 | 11 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 6th InningVargas grounded out to first.
- 6th InningPitch 8 : Ball In Play
- 1st InningVargas doubled to center, Carroll scored.0–2
- 8th InningGonzales grounded out to third.
Scoring Plays
- 1st InningVargas doubled to center, Carroll scored.0–2
- 6th InningMarte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Thomas scored, Perdomo third.0–6
- 6th InningCarroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to second.0–7
- 1st InningDel Castillo hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.0–1
- 6th InningMoreno doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Arenado to third.0–3
- 8th InningDel Castillo singled to right, Marte scored.0–9
- 8th InningMarte singled to right, Thomas scored, Marte to second.0–8
- 6th InningPerdomo doubled to right, Arenado scored and Moreno scored, Thomas to third.0–5