BAL @ MIA
loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Rafters Edge Simulation
A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.
Night GameIndoor6:40 PM ET⚾ Brandon Young vs Eury PerezMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Result readBaltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 7 · Miami Marlins 4
Final
Baltimore Orioles18-23-1-1.0 net/g (SOS-adj -1.1) · expected win rate 41% · last 10: 30%
Miami Marlins19-22-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj +0.0) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 40%
Venue EdgeloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts
Baltimore Orioles gets the model’s nod thanks to Miami Marlins’s margin advantage, with Miami Marlins’s recent run providing the second tip. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.
Rafty’s call: ✗ WRONG
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 79%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 3.
Pre-game pick: Miami Marlins at 79%. Actual: Baltimore Orioles by 3.
Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.
Key Players to Watch
Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Bassitt SP · #40
- Kyle Bradish SP · #38
- Gunnar Henderson SS · #2
- Pete Alonso 1B · #25
Miami Marlins
- Eury Perez SP · #39
- Sandy Alcantara SP · #22
- Jakob Marsee CF · #87
- Xavier Edwards 2B · #9
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut
Baltimore Orioles
Will RobertsonDay-To-DayTrevor Rogers15-Day-ILKeagan GilliesDay-To-DayJackson Holliday10-Day-ILLuis VazquezDay-To-Day
On The Diamond
A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.
Box Score
Highlights
- 🏃 DoubleRutschman doubled to right, Ward scored.5–3
- 🏃 DoubleRutschman doubled to left, Ward scored.6–3
- ScoreEdwards grounded out to shortstop, Lopez scored.6–4
- 🏃 TripleAlexander tripled to right, Basallo scored.7–4
- ScoreCaissie singled to right, Marsee scored, Morel to third.3–3
- 🏃 DoubleMarsee doubled to left, Stowers scored and Norby scored.3–2
Scoring by Inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Baltimore Orioles
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson SS· | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .201 | .262 | .429 |
| Taylor Ward LF· | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 29 | .285 | .434 | .408 |
| Adley Rutschman C· | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .313 | .368 | .563 |
| Pete Alonso 1B· | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | .225 | .331 | .449 |
| Samuel Basallo C· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | .257 | .330 | .465 |
| Leody Taveras CF· | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | .277 | .388 | .434 |
| Dylan Beavers RF· | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | .217 | .305 | .326 |
| Tyler O'Neill RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .196 | .339 | .261 |
| Colton Cowser RF | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .179 | .282 | .209 |
| Coby Mayo 3B· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .152 | .218 | .283 |
| Blaze Alexander 3B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .232 | .284 | .280 |
| Jeremiah Jackson 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .250 | .267 | .431 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young SP· | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 93-62 | 4.35 | 93 |
| Grant Wolfram RP | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15-12 | 4.85 | 15 |
| Anthony Nunez RP | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16-10 | 4.50 | 16 |
| Rico Garcia RP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15-9 | 0.53 | 15 |
Miami Marlins
batting
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards 2B· | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .324 | .414 | .449 |
| Liam Hicks C· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | .321 | .376 | .569 |
| Connor Norby 1B· | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | .231 | .339 | .380 |
| Kyle Stowers LF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .224 | .318 | .276 |
| Jakob Marsee CF· | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | .180 | .294 | .259 |
| Christopher Morel LF· | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | .235 | .350 | .235 |
| Owen Caissie RF· | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | .202 | .261 | .323 |
| Joe Mack C· | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | .222 | .222 | .222 |
| Otto Lopez SS | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .336 | .368 | .510 |
| Javier Sanoja 3B· | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .301 | .363 | .356 |
pitching
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez SP· | 5.0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 93-55 | 5.01 | 93 |
| Dax Fulton SP | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 64-35 | 4.50 | 64 |
Play-by-Play
Recent Plays
- 9th InningCaissie walked.
- 7th InningNorby struck out swinging.
- 7th InningHicks reached on infield single to third.
Scoring Plays
- 5th InningRutschman doubled to right, Ward scored.5–3
- 7th InningRutschman doubled to left, Ward scored.6–3
- 7th InningEdwards grounded out to shortstop, Lopez scored.6–4
- 8th InningAlexander tripled to right, Basallo scored.7–4
- 1st InningCaissie singled to right, Marsee scored, Morel to third.3–3
- 1st InningMarsee doubled to left, Stowers scored and Norby scored.3–2
- 1st InningAlonso homered to left center (407 feet), Ward scored and Rutschman scored.3–0
- 4th InningBeavers hit a ground rule double, Taveras scored.4–3