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In The Rafters

DET @ KC

Joshua Silvia
15–22 minutes

Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:40 PM CT⚾ Keider Montero vs Kris BubicMLB.TVRoyals.TVTigers.TV
Result readKansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers 3 · Kansas City Royals 4

Final
Detroit Tigers19-23-0.1 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 49% · last 10: 30%
Kansas City Royals19-23-1-0.3 net/g (SOS-adj -0.1) · expected win rate 46% · last 10: 60%
Venue EdgeKauffman StadiumHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

The model leans Kansas City Royals because Detroit Tigers owns the cleaner scoring-margin profile and Kansas City Royals has the recent-form edge. Pitcher confirmation and bullpen availability can move this fastest.

Rafty’s call: ✓ RIGHT
Pre-game pick: Kansas City Royals at 61%. Actual: Kansas City Royals by 1.

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Kansas City Royals

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

Bailey Falter15-Day-ILCole Ragans15-Day-ILJames McArthur60-Day-ILAnthony SimonelliDay-To-DayJavier VazDay-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

Connor Seabold15-Day-ILFramber ValdezsuspensionCasey Mize15-Day-ILGleyber Torres10-Day-ILKerry Carpenter10-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Detroit Tigers
RG Riley Greene LF · #31 MV Matt Vierling CF · #8 KC K. Carpenter RF · #30 CK Colt Keith 3B · #33 KM K. McGonigle SS · #7 GT Gleyber Torres 2B · #25 ST S. Torkelson 1B · #20 FV Framber Valdez P · #59 DD Dillon Dingler C · #13
Kansas City Royals
IC Isaac Collins LF · #1 KI Kyle Isbel CF · #28 JC Jac Caglianone RF · #14 MG Maikel Garcia 3B · #11 BW Bobby Witt Jr. SS · #7 MM Michael Massey 2B · #19 VP V. Pasquantino 1B · #9 CR Cole Ragans P · #55 SP Salvador Perez C · #13

Box Score

Top Performers

Final Notes

  • Final frame: Kansas City Royals beat Detroit Tigers 4-3.
  • Top line: Keider Montero (Detroit Tigers) — 6.0 IP, 4 K, 1 ER.
  • Support line: Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals) — 5.2 IP, 5 K, 3 ER.
  • Support line: Kyle Isbel (Kansas City Royals) — 2-4, 2 RBI, 1 R.

Highlights

  1. 🏃 DoublePérez doubled to center, Dingler scored.6th Inning2–1
  2. ScoreCollins singled to right, Caglianone scored.2nd Inning1–1
  3. 🏃 DoubleTorkelson doubled to left, Pérez scored.6th Inning3–1
  4. ScoreIsbel singled to left, Loftin scored.9th Inning3–4
  5. ScoreIsbel singled to right, Massey scored on error, Isbel safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Pérez, Isbel safe at third on error.8th Inning3–2
  6. ScoreTorkelson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Greene scored, Pérez out at second.2nd Inning1–0

Scoring by Inning

Team123456789RHE
Detroit Tigers010002000381
Kansas City Royals010000021480

Detroit Tigers

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Matt Vierling CF·1-4401000016.226.287.393
Kerry Carpenter RF0-110000003.208.293.446
Kevin McGonigle SS·0-3300002121.293.393.443
Jahmai Jones DH·0-2200001016.200.250.378
Colt Keith 3B0-220000008.321.363.387
Dillon Dingler C·0-4410000118.239.305.453
Riley Greene LF·3-4413000110.309.404.475
Wenceel Perez RF·2-4412100116.174.230.290
Spencer Torkelson 1B·1-4401100010.208.331.408
Hao-Yu Lee 3B·0-220000014.163.217.279
Zach McKinstry 2B1-220100005.196.268.314
Zack Short 3B·0-2200002120.000.286.000

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Keider Montero SP·6.031114071-443.1871
Tyler Holton RP1.000001014-104.6014
Kyle Finnegan RP0.032210012-81.5312
Brant Hurter RP1.221111030-191.7730

Kansas City Royals

· Starter

Batting#

PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK#PAVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia 3B·1-440110007.269.333.414
Bobby Witt Jr. SS·1-3301001015.299.371.461
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B·0-3300001012.190.277.358
Salvador Perez C·0-3300001122.195.238.329
Carter Jensen C·0-3300000216.217.305.391
Lane Thomas CF0-110000001.224.376.284
Elias Diaz C0-000000000.286.333.643
Jac Caglianone RF·1-4411000114.243.320.417
Isaac Collins LF·1-4401100220.250.363.375
Michael Massey 2B·1-331100009.229.253.414
Nick Loftin 3B1-111100004.282.383.410
Kyle Isbel CF·2-441220007.283.347.424

Pitching#

PlayerIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERAPC
Kris Bubic SP·5.243345096-593.5096
Nick Mears RP0.11000007-61.937
Luinder Avila RP1.010001018-126.7518
John Schreiber RP1.010000012-103.6012
Lucas Erceg RP1.010010014-73.3114

Keep following: Today’s scores·Player values·Morning Line

Play-by-Play

Recent Plays

  1. 8th InningPerez walked.
  2. 8th InningPitch 11 : Ball 4
  3. 8th InningPitch 10 : Ball 3
  4. 8th InningPitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

Scoring Plays

  1. 6th InningPérez doubled to center, Dingler scored.2–1
  2. 2nd InningCollins singled to right, Caglianone scored.1–1
  3. 6th InningTorkelson doubled to left, Pérez scored.3–1
  4. 9th InningIsbel singled to left, Loftin scored.3–4
  5. 8th InningIsbel singled to right, Massey scored on error, Isbel safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Pérez, Isbel safe at third on error.3–2
  6. 2nd InningTorkelson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Greene scored, Pérez out at second.1–0
  7. 8th InningGarcia singled to center, Isbel scored.3–3

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