Rafters Edge Simulation

A transparent, site-owned matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. For entertainment and analysis only.

Night GameOutdoor6:05 PM PT⚾ Braxton Ashcraft vs Landen RouppMLB.TV
Model pickPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 · San Francisco Giants 3.1

68%confidence
Pittsburgh Pirates19-17+0.6 net/g (SOS-adj +0.5) · expected win rate 56% · last 10: 40%
San Francisco Giants14-23-1-1.1 net/g (SOS-adj -1.2) · expected win rate 36% · last 10: 15%
Venue EdgeOracle ParkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating pts

Two reasons the projection lands on Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates’s scoring margin profile and Pittsburgh Pirates’s recent stretch. Bullpen rest day is the sneakiest input — a long man on the mound erases a 3-run lead in two innings.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. Pittsburgh Pirates is 40% over their recent sample; San Francisco Giants is 15%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.
  • Net efficiency. Pittsburgh Pirates projects 56% from points-for vs points-allowed; San Francisco Giants sits at 36%.
  • Pitching matchup. Braxton Ashcraft (Pittsburgh Pirates) vs. Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants).

Players to Watch

San Francisco Giants

Formula: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed (anchored), scoring margin, recent form, and home/venue edge, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever the venue/game workflow republishes game pages.

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

Luis ArraezDay-To-DayHarrison Bader10-Day-ILSam Hentges15-Day-ILDaniel Susac10-Day-ILLogan WebbDay-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dominic FletcherDay-To-DayChris DevenskiSuspensionJared Jones60-Day-ILSean SullivanDay-To-DayMike ClevingerDay-To-Day

On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

Recent Form

San Francisco Giants

  • L@ TB5-1
  • L@ TB2-1 F/10
  • Wvs SD3-2
  • Lvs SD10-5
  • Lvs SD5-1

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Lvs STL10-5
  • Wvs CIN9-1
  • Wvs CIN17-7
  • Wvs CIN1-0
  • L@ ARI9-0

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