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Game Read

A transparent matchup read built from recent scoreboard history, scoring margin, recent form, and home-venue adjustment. It is analysis, not betting advice.

Afternoon GameIndoor4:10 PM ETMLB.TVMarlins.TV
Projected leanNew York Mets

New York Mets 4.1 · Miami Marlins 4.2

54%confidence
New York Mets16-25-2-0.5 net/g (schedule-adjusted -0.7) · expected win rate 43% · last 10: 55%
Miami Marlins19-23-0.1 net/g (schedule-adjusted -0.1) · expected win rate 48% · last 10: 40%
Home VenueloanDepot parkHome adjustment: +1.0 rating points

New York Mets is the lean because of Miami Marlins on the margin numbers and New York Mets on the form numbers. Park factor, weather, and lineup handedness vs. the starter own the run-total swing here.

Three things to watch

  • Form gap. New York Mets is 55% over their recent sample; Miami Marlins is 40%. Streaky teams tend to carry one more game than the math allows for.

Inputs: expected win rate from points-for vs. points-allowed, scoring margin, recent form, and home venue, adjusted by league volatility. Refreshes whenever game pages republish.

Key Players to Watch

New York Mets

Miami Marlins

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Owen CaissieDay-To-DayPete Fairbanks15-Day-ILGriffin Conine10-Day-ILRonny Henriquez60-Day-ILJesus TinocoOut

New York Mets

Francisco AlvarezDay-To-DayGrae KessingerOutJose RojasDay-To-DayJoe JacquesDay-To-DayA.J. Minter15-Day-IL
On The Diamond

A standard 1–9 lineup card pulled from the active roster. Click a player to open their profile.

Box Score

Live and final box-score stats appear here once the game tips.

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Recent Form

Miami Marlins

  • Wvs BAL4-3
  • Lvs WSH3-2
  • Wvs WSH8-7
  • Wvs WSH5-2
  • L@ MIN3-0

New York Mets

  • L@ COL6-2
  • W@ ARI3-1 F/10
  • L@ ARI2-1
  • L@ ARI5-1
  • Wvs DET10-2

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